by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Fri September 21, 2012 6 a.m. PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a fourteen-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Jersey, 53% Obama to 39% Romney, in a poll of 1,143 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
|In New Jersey:|
|Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, as 91% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 92% of Republicans are voting for Romney.|
|Independents are split, 41% for Obama and 42% for Romney.|
|Women overwhelmingly favor Obama by 56%-35%, while men favor Obama 49%-44%.|
|Obama leads in the Urban North region of the state (65%-27%), and by a identical 54%-39% margins in both South and Central New Jersey.|
|Romney holds a substantial lead in Northwest New Jersey (58%-34%).|
|The race is close in Suburban North new jersey, as Obama leads Romney (46%-43%).|
|The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (71%-20%). The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney over Obama (55%-38%).|
Incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Menendez holds a 43%-29% lead over Republican Senate challenger Joe Kyrillos.
Voters in New Jersey are leaning in favor of voting for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, with 39% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 34% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,143 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 3.4% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for a complete report of results