by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Tue October 16, 2012 noon PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a solid, 19-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in California, 58% Obama to 39% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1169 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).
|In California (Oct 4-11):|
|Partisan loyalty is very strong on both sides, with 95% of Democrats intending to vote Obama and 92% of Republicans intending to vote for Romney.|
|Independents break toward Romney, 52%-40%.|
|Women strongly favor Obama 63%-34%, while among men Obama is more narrowly ahead (53%-44%).|
|Obama enjoys a huge lead over Romney in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area (68%-30% and 70%-26%, respectively), as well as a sizeable lead in the state’s Coastal region (52%-32%).|
|The race is nearly evenly divided in Southern California outside of L.A. County (Obama 49% - Romney 48%) and in the state’s Inland/Valley region (Romney 49% - Obama 49%).|
|The oldest voters age 65+ split nearly evenly between the two candidates (Obama 51% - Romney 49%), while the youngest under age 30 overwhelmingly favor Obama (60%-35%).|
|Net Change in Voter Intention:|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11|
In this year’s U.S. Senate race in California, incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein holds a decisive advantage over GOP challenger Elizabeth Emken, leading 55%-35%.
Likely voters in California are mostly supporting Democratic congressional candidates, with 52% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 36% intending to vote for the Republican candidates.
The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 87.2%.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1169 likely voters.
Margin of error ± 3.5% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).