by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Tue October 16, noon PDT
Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Georgia, 52% Romney to 44% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 777 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).
|In Georgia (Oct 4-11):|
|Georgia’s Democrats and Republicans are strong partisans, with 95% of Democrats sticking with Obama, and 93% of Republicans voting for Romney.|
|Romney overwhelmingly wins the vote of likely voters who are Independents, 70% Romney-21% Obama.|
|Women favor Obama by a 51%-45% margin, while men favor the challenger, 59% Romney-38% Obama.|
|Romney leads in north Georgia, 68%-28%, in the far suburbs of Atlanta, 59%-35%, and in the southwest corner of the state, 54%-45%. Obama leads in the Atlanta Metro area, 63% Obama-34% Romney, and it is a contest in the southeast, 49% Romney-48% Obama.|
|The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney over Obama overwhelmingly (70% Romney-30% Obama), and Romney also leads among Georgia’s Baby Boomers by a wide margin (63% Romney-34% Obama). Obama leads (57% Obama-42% Romney) among those age 30-44, and Obama wins by about 2-to-1 among the youngest likely voters in Georgia.|
|Romney has only widened what was already a huge lead among Georgia likely voters who are Independents, rising from a strong 65%-24% lead in September with this key swing group to an even stronger 70%-21% among these same Independent likely voters today.|
|Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11|
In the race for U.S. Representative for their Congressional districts, 47% intend to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 40% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted October 4-11.
Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 76.5%.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 777 likely voters.
Margin of error ±4.5% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).