New York

New York

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a 24-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New York, 59% Obama to 35% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1142 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll). 

In New York (Oct 4-11):
Partisan loyalty is fairly strong on both sides, with 88% of Democrats intending to vote Obama and 90% of Republicans intending to vote for Romney. 
Independents are split almost evenly, with 45% supporting Obama and 44% supporting Romney.  
Women strongly favor Obama 63%-31%, while among men Obama is more narrowly ahead (53%-40%). 
Obama enjoys a huge lead over Romney in New York City (71%-22%). He also has a substantial lead in the Hudson River Valley (54%-41%) and very narrow leads in Long Island (49%-46%) and the urban parts of Upstate New York (48%-45%). 
Romney enjoys a nominal lead in the rural parts of Upstate New York (47%-45%).  
The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (52%-44%), while young voters overwhelmingly favor Obama (68%-23%).   
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11
Barack Obama 58% 59% 46% 45%
Mitt Romney 36% 35% 43% 44%

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Senator Kristen Gillibrand appears to be easily dispatching her Republican rival, Wendy Long. Gillibrand leads Long, 55%-25%.  

Likely voters in New York are primarily supporting Democratic congressional candidates, with 50% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 32% intending to vote for the Republican candidate.  

The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method:  Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll.  The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 81.3%.

Weighting:  The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents:  1142 likely voters.   Margin of error ± 3.2% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).


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