Ohio

Ohio

Democratic President Barack Obama clings to a marginal lead in the race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 50% Obama to 46% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 851 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).   

In Ohio (Oct 4-11):
Ohio is a state with very strong partisan loyalties, especially on the Republican side, with 93% of Democrats sticking with Obama and 97% of Republicans voting for Romney.
Romney easily wins the majority of the vote among likely voters who are Independents, 56% Romney-33% Obama.
Women favor Obama by a solid 56%-41% margin, while men favor the challenger, 50% Romney-44% Obama.
Obama is hardly contested in the Cleveland area, enjoying a 69%-23% lead there among likely voters, and the President also holds a solid advantage in eastern Ohio (52%-42%) and northwest Ohio/Toledo (50%-43%). Romney leads by a wide margin in southern Ohio and the Cincinnati area, 62% Romney-36% Obama, and a narrow lead in the Columbus area, 53% Romney-47% Obama.
The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney by huge margin over Obama (58% Romney-39% Obama), and Romney also leads among Ohio’s Baby Boomers (52% Romney-45% Obama).  Obama’s lead among those age 30-44 (59% Obama-37% Romney) is as strong as Romney’s lead among the oldest likely voters, and Obama leads by an even wider margin among likely voters under age 30. 
Romney has made significant strides among Ohio’s likely voters who are Independents, rising from a strong 49%-35% lead in September with this key swing group to an even stronger 56%-33% among these same likely voters today.
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11
Barack Obama 47% 50% 35% 33%
Mitt Romney 44% 46% 49% 56%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 48%-43% lead over Republican Senate challenger Josh Mandel, little-changed from Brown’s 46%-42% lead among these same likely voters in September.

Likely voters in Ohio are beginning to make up their minds about which candidate to support for U.S. House representative from their Congressional districts, with 47% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 42% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online October 4-11.

Sampling method:  Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll.  The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 83.8%.

Weighting:  The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents:  851 likely voters.   Margin of error ±4.8% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).


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