by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Sun November 4, 2012 8:30 a.m. PST
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a strong 14-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Washington, 54% Obama to 40% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 837 likely voters statewide.
|In Washington State (Oct 31-Nov 3):|
|Independents give Romney a nominal 1-point lead, 44% for Romney and 43% for Obama.|
|Obama leads strongly in Seattle (66%-27%), and in Puget Sound and the Southwest (55%-40% and 49%-42% respectively), while Romney has a strong lead in Eastern Washington (57%-39%).|
|Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Oct 31-Nov 3||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Oct 31-Nov 3|
Incumbent Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell continues to hold a strong 56%-38% lead over Republican Senate challenger Michael Baumgartner.
The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012
Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: XYZ likely voters. Margin of error ±X.Y% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).
Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).