Tragedies inevitably raise political questions.  Politics, despite its tawdry reputation, is essentially a competition over matters of fundamental importance.  So, when the story of the killing of Trayvon Martin made national news it is not surprising that political posturing soon followed.  Ultimately, because politics are involved, any resolution to public-policy questions, such as the usefulness of "stand your ground" laws, will include an examination of public opinion about the matter.   Public opinion can be very informative: although we can't know the exact circumstances around the particular shooting of Trayvon Martin, and should let the criminal justice system sort it out, ... read more

Previously, I wrote about the divide between liberals and conservatives over the value of college: liberals are far more likely than conservatives (by 20 percentage points) to believe that college is important to financial success. Since then, I've been asked by several people, "then what do conservatives believe is important to financial success"?  I have an answer to this question and, like opinions about college, politics is shaping opinion.  On the same YouGov survey that I asked about college, I asked about the importance of two other factors that might contribute to success.  So, if liberals are almost twice as ... read more

When Rick Santorum chided President Obama for encouraging all Americans to go to college, he received widespread criticism, but it may still have been good politics. According to new survey data, the value of college has been politicized and it is an issue on which liberals and conservatives are worlds apart. Last week, in a YouGov/Polimetrix survey, I asked a representative sample of Americans about the value of a college education and what they think college does for those that attend.   First the good news: a majority of all types: Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives say that college is, ... read more

Leading up to the 2010 election, Model Politics published several posts about the distorted view typical Americans have of those who live around them – overestimating the presence, by large amounts, of everything from illegal immigrants to the number of people making over $250,000.  The greatest misperception, however, was in guesses about the proportion of food stamp recipients in a person’s state.  On average, people were off by a factor of three (11.6% in reality at the time, 32.2% as the average response).  Given people’s distorted view of food-stamp-reality, is Newt Gingrich’s recent effort to paint President Obama as "the ... read more

The recent tax compromise between the President and Congressional Republicans is dominating headlines – the extension of the Bush era tax cuts could mean a difference of several thousand dollars to the typical family. Do voters care? For most American, not enough to pay to change things. Let us explain: In a recent YouGov survey, we gave respondents a hypothetical scenario. “Suppose that you alone could determine whether a Democrat or a Republican represents your Congressional district by paying a specific dollar amount? How much would you be willing to pay to ensure that a Congressman from your preferred party ... read more

I've got more bad news about what people know.In two previous blog posts, I wrote that survey respondents were, on average, quite mistaken about the proportion of illegal immigrants in their state, as well as the proportion of their state making over $250,000 per year.It seems that Americans are similarly confused about other demographics as well. I asked respondents in this nationally representative survey about the presence of several different groups, in both their state and city. As bad as misperceptions are about illegal immigrants and the wealthy (overstated by and average of 13 percentage points and 11 percentage points, ... read more

While pundits and activists bemoan the consistently low levels of turnout in American elections, we as political scientists are perplexed by the millions of citizens that DO vote. On Tuesday, 42% of registered voters took time out of their day to travel to their assigned polling location, wait in line, exchange niceties with a grumpy volunteer, and fill in some bubbles with a Sharpie. What did they receive in return?: a sticker and a 0% chance of changing the results of the election. Political scientists have tried to calculate the probability that one vote will make a difference in a ... read more

Meg Whitman, California GOP gubernatorial candidate, admitted to hiring an undocumented worker as a housekeeper for nine years. This sort of thing seems to happen every so often. However, you have to wonder why anybody gets upset: by the estimate of most Americans it would be pretty difficult not to hire illegal immigrants. Let me explain… In 2008, the Pew Hispanic Center, calculated that there might be 11.2 million illegal immigrants in the United States. That is about 4% of the population. The state with the greatest proportion was Arizona, with 7.9%. These numbers, like any Census of a large ... read more

With many issues, despite strong opinions, voters are short on the details. For example, in a recent posting, Larry Bartels related survey evidence showing that there is a wide gap in voter enthusiasm between voters that favor renewing the Bush Tax Cuts and those that favor letting the tax cuts expire. The hot button issue with the tax cuts is whether to renew the cuts for families earning more than $250,000 a year. The wrangling among politicians over this issue seems to mostly involve whether or not earning that amount of money qualifies somebody as wealthy. What's amazing about the ... read more