There’s been a lot of speculation recently about how the remaining undecided voters will break over the next few days.  My co-author on THE GAMBLE, John Sides, writes that his analyses of currently undecided voters using our Cooperative Campaign Analysis Data (C.C.A.P.) from the last 3 weeks predicts a break ...
Read more...

This question obviously has important implications for who wins this election. We can start by dismissing the blanket statement that “challengers break for the incumbent.”  That is not true as a blanket statement.  See Daron Shaw’s chapter on swing votes in Unconventional Wisdom as well as Mark Blumenthal and Nate ...
Read more...

During the Republican convention this year, Republican speakers made a point of asking whether Americans were better off now than they were four years ago. In some ways, that's a funny question to be asking. Obviously, it harkens back to Reagan's successful 1980 takedown of an incumbent president, but the answer is ...
Read more...

In deciding between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, we hope that voters are choosing between candidates based in part on candidates’ policy stances, such as their positions on taxes and war. In a book I have coming out this month, Follow the Leader (press release), I find surprisingly little evidence ...
Read more...

There are two versions of what has happened in the past three weeks in the battle to be US President. One is the version told by most nationwide polls and accepted by the media; the second, told by a minority of nationwide polls, including YouGov, and most polls in the ...
Read more...

With so much of this year’s campaign focusing on taxes and tax policy, it might seem unlikely that prospective voters could still be swayed by learning a basic fact about the U.S. tax system. However, last week’s YouGov survey found that 44% don’t know it—and that they are 6 points ...
Read more...

Become a YouGov Panelist!