Last updated: 2020-11-01
Popular vote
Electoral college
The height of each bar represents the estimated probability of Joe Biden receiving that number of electoral votes. Blue, Biden wins. Red, Trump wins.
270 electoral votes needed
Daily estimates produced by YouGov’s Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification model. Error bands represent 95% confidence intervals.
A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.
State | Biden % | Trump % | Lead % | 2016 Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 44.7 | 51.8 | Trump by 7.2% | Trump by 14.7% |
| Alabama | 39.0 | 59.4 | Trump by 20.4% | Trump by 27.7% |
| Arkansas | 38.9 | 58.4 | Trump by 19.5% | Trump by 26.9% |
| Arizona | 51.2 | 45.8 | Biden by 5.4% | Trump by 3.5% |
| California | 64.9 | 32.0 | Biden by 32.9% | Clinton by 30.1% |
| Colorado | 54.6 | 42.4 | Biden by 12.1% | Clinton by 4.9% |
| Connecticut | 61.1 | 37.0 | Biden by 24.1% | Clinton by 13.6% |
| District of Columbia | 91.3 | 6.8 | Biden by 84.5% | Clinton by 86.8% |
| Delaware | 59.2 | 38.6 | Biden by 20.6% | Clinton by 11.4% |
| Florida | 51.2 | 46.9 | Biden by 4.3% | Trump by 1.2% |
| Georgia | 50.4 | 47.3 | Biden by 3.1% | Trump by 5.1% |
| Hawaii | 66.0 | 30.3 | Biden by 35.6% | Clinton by 32.2% |
| Iowa | 48.6 | 49.0 | Trump by 0.5% | Trump by 9.4% |
| Idaho | 35.6 | 59.6 | Trump by 24.0% | Trump by 31.8% |
| Illinois | 60.1 | 37.2 | Biden by 22.9% | Clinton by 17.1% |
| Indiana | 43.9 | 53.7 | Trump by 9.8% | Trump by 19.2% |
| Kansas | 44.0 | 53.0 | Trump by 9.0% | Trump by 20.6% |
| Kentucky | 38.0 | 59.5 | Trump by 21.5% | Trump by 29.8% |
| Louisiana | 42.7 | 55.3 | Trump by 12.6% | Trump by 19.6% |
| Massachusetts | 66.1 | 31.6 | Biden by 34.4% | Clinton by 27.2% |
| Maryland | 65.5 | 32.2 | Biden by 33.3% | Clinton by 26.4% |
| Maine | 54.6 | 42.6 | Biden by 12.0% | Clinton by 3% |
| Michigan | 52.8 | 44.9 | Biden by 7.9% | Trump by 0.2% |
| Minnesota | 53.5 | 43.5 | Biden by 10.0% | Clinton by 1.5% |
| Missouri | 42.6 | 54.9 | Trump by 12.2% | Trump by 18.6% |
| Mississippi | 42.7 | 55.3 | Trump by 12.5% | Trump by 17.8% |
| Montana | 43.6 | 53.3 | Trump by 9.6% | Trump by 20.4% |
| North Carolina | 50.2 | 47.8 | Biden by 2.4% | Trump by 3.7% |
| North Dakota | 35.3 | 60.7 | Trump by 25.4% | Trump by 35.7% |
| Nebraska | 40.2 | 57.0 | Trump by 16.8% | Trump by 25% |
| New Hampshire | 53.7 | 43.6 | Biden by 10.1% | Clinton by 0.4% |
| New Jersey | 59.6 | 38.4 | Biden by 21.2% | Clinton by 14.1% |
| New Mexico | 55.8 | 40.9 | Biden by 14.9% | Clinton by 8.2% |
| Nevada | 53.8 | 43.6 | Biden by 10.2% | Clinton by 2.4% |
| New York | 63.9 | 34.3 | Biden by 29.6% | Clinton by 22.5% |
| Ohio | 48.8 | 49.2 | Trump by 0.4% | Trump by 8.1% |
| Oklahoma | 36.2 | 61.4 | Trump by 25.2% | Trump by 36.4% |
| Oregon | 58.2 | 38.4 | Biden by 19.8% | Clinton by 11% |
| Pennsylvania | 52.5 | 45.7 | Biden by 6.8% | Trump by 0.7% |
| Rhode Island | 61.0 | 36.5 | Biden by 24.5% | Clinton by 15.5% |
| South Carolina | 45.5 | 52.6 | Trump by 7.1% | Trump by 14.3% |
| South Dakota | 37.9 | 59.1 | Trump by 21.2% | Trump by 29.8% |
| Tennessee | 40.7 | 56.8 | Trump by 16.2% | Trump by 26% |
| Texas | 48.8 | 49.0 | Trump by 0.3% | Trump by 9% |
| Utah | 41.9 | 51.1 | Trump by 9.3% | Trump by 18.1% |
| Virginia | 54.6 | 43.0 | Biden by 11.6% | Clinton by 5.3% |
| Vermont | 66.3 | 30.8 | Biden by 35.4% | Clinton by 26.4% |
| Washington | 60.2 | 36.4 | Biden by 23.8% | Clinton by 15.7% |
| Wisconsin | 52.2 | 45.4 | Biden by 6.8% | Trump by 0.8% |
| West Virginia | 32.7 | 65.2 | Trump by 32.6% | Trump by 42.1% |
| Wyoming | 29.2 | 67.4 | Trump by 38.2% | Trump by 46.3% |