2020 Presidential Election Model

Last updated: 2020-11-01

Electoral college

Joe

Biden

53.2%

364

Donald

Trump

44.3%

174

270 to win

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes

Hawaii

4 electoral votes

Vermont

3 electoral votes

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes

Maryland

10 electoral votes
CA

California

55 electoral votes
NY

New York

29 electoral votes

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes

Connecticut

7 electoral votes

Washington

12 electoral votes
IL

Illinois

20 electoral votes
NJ

New Jersey

14 electoral votes

Delaware

3 electoral votes

Oregon

7 electoral votes

New Mexico

5 electoral votes

Colorado

9 electoral votes

Maine

4 electoral votes
VA

Virginia

13 electoral votes

Nevada

6 electoral votes

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
MI

Michigan

16 electoral votes

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
PA

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes

Arizona

11 electoral votes
FL

Florida

29 electoral votes
GA

Georgia

16 electoral votes
NC

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
TX

Texas

38 electoral votes
OH

Ohio

18 electoral votes

Iowa

6 electoral votes

South Carolina

9 electoral votes

Alaska

3 electoral votes

Kansas

6 electoral votes

Utah

6 electoral votes

Montana

3 electoral votes

Indiana

11 electoral votes

Missouri

10 electoral votes

Mississippi

6 electoral votes

Louisiana

8 electoral votes

Tennessee

11 electoral votes

Nebraska

5 electoral votes

Arkansas

6 electoral votes

Alabama

9 electoral votes

South Dakota

3 electoral votes

Kentucky

8 electoral votes

Idaho

4 electoral votes

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes

North Dakota

3 electoral votes

West Virginia

5 electoral votes

Wyoming

3 electoral votes

Electoral Vote

The height of each bar represents the estimated probability of Joe Biden receiving that number of electoral votes. Blue, Biden wins. Red, Trump wins.

270 electoral votes needed

Created with Highcharts 8.2.2Electoral votes for Joe Biden01002003004005000.0%0.8%1.6%2.4%3.2%4.0%

National Popular Vote

Daily estimates produced by YouGov’s Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification model. Error bands represent 95% confidence intervals.

Created with Highcharts 8.2.231. Aug14. Sep28. Sep12. Oct26. Oct35%40%45%50%55%60%

State Vote Estimates

A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.

State
Biden %
Trump %
Lead %
2016 Election
Alaska 44.7 51.8 Trump by 7.2% Trump by 14.7%
Alabama 39.0 59.4 Trump by 20.4% Trump by 27.7%
Arkansas 38.9 58.4 Trump by 19.5% Trump by 26.9%
Arizona 51.2 45.8 Biden by 5.4% Trump by 3.5%
California 64.9 32.0 Biden by 32.9% Clinton by 30.1%
Colorado 54.6 42.4 Biden by 12.1% Clinton by 4.9%
Connecticut 61.1 37.0 Biden by 24.1% Clinton by 13.6%
District of Columbia 91.3 6.8 Biden by 84.5% Clinton by 86.8%
Delaware 59.2 38.6 Biden by 20.6% Clinton by 11.4%
Florida 51.2 46.9 Biden by 4.3% Trump by 1.2%
Georgia 50.4 47.3 Biden by 3.1% Trump by 5.1%
Hawaii 66.0 30.3 Biden by 35.6% Clinton by 32.2%
Iowa 48.6 49.0 Trump by 0.5% Trump by 9.4%
Idaho 35.6 59.6 Trump by 24.0% Trump by 31.8%
Illinois 60.1 37.2 Biden by 22.9% Clinton by 17.1%
Indiana 43.9 53.7 Trump by 9.8% Trump by 19.2%
Kansas 44.0 53.0 Trump by 9.0% Trump by 20.6%
Kentucky 38.0 59.5 Trump by 21.5% Trump by 29.8%
Louisiana 42.7 55.3 Trump by 12.6% Trump by 19.6%
Massachusetts 66.1 31.6 Biden by 34.4% Clinton by 27.2%
Maryland 65.5 32.2 Biden by 33.3% Clinton by 26.4%
Maine 54.6 42.6 Biden by 12.0% Clinton by 3%
Michigan 52.8 44.9 Biden by 7.9% Trump by 0.2%
Minnesota 53.5 43.5 Biden by 10.0% Clinton by 1.5%
Missouri 42.6 54.9 Trump by 12.2% Trump by 18.6%
Mississippi 42.7 55.3 Trump by 12.5% Trump by 17.8%
Montana 43.6 53.3 Trump by 9.6% Trump by 20.4%
North Carolina 50.2 47.8 Biden by 2.4% Trump by 3.7%
North Dakota 35.3 60.7 Trump by 25.4% Trump by 35.7%
Nebraska 40.2 57.0 Trump by 16.8% Trump by 25%
New Hampshire 53.7 43.6 Biden by 10.1% Clinton by 0.4%
New Jersey 59.6 38.4 Biden by 21.2% Clinton by 14.1%
New Mexico 55.8 40.9 Biden by 14.9% Clinton by 8.2%
Nevada 53.8 43.6 Biden by 10.2% Clinton by 2.4%
New York 63.9 34.3 Biden by 29.6% Clinton by 22.5%
Ohio 48.8 49.2 Trump by 0.4% Trump by 8.1%
Oklahoma 36.2 61.4 Trump by 25.2% Trump by 36.4%
Oregon 58.2 38.4 Biden by 19.8% Clinton by 11%
Pennsylvania 52.5 45.7 Biden by 6.8% Trump by 0.7%
Rhode Island 61.0 36.5 Biden by 24.5% Clinton by 15.5%
South Carolina 45.5 52.6 Trump by 7.1% Trump by 14.3%
South Dakota 37.9 59.1 Trump by 21.2% Trump by 29.8%
Tennessee 40.7 56.8 Trump by 16.2% Trump by 26%
Texas 48.8 49.0 Trump by 0.3% Trump by 9%
Utah 41.9 51.1 Trump by 9.3% Trump by 18.1%
Virginia 54.6 43.0 Biden by 11.6% Clinton by 5.3%
Vermont 66.3 30.8 Biden by 35.4% Clinton by 26.4%
Washington 60.2 36.4 Biden by 23.8% Clinton by 15.7%
Wisconsin 52.2 45.4 Biden by 6.8% Trump by 0.8%
West Virginia 32.7 65.2 Trump by 32.6% Trump by 42.1%
Wyoming 29.2 67.4 Trump by 38.2% Trump by 46.3%