2020 Presidential Election Model

In recent US and UK elections, YouGov has used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or ‘MRP’ for short) to produce estimates for states in the US and constituencies in the UK. In cooperation with CBS News, YouGov has conducted interviews in every state over the course of the campaign. These final estimates were published on November 1st, are based on 99,049 interviews, and represent YouGov’s best assessment of the state of the race.

Last updated: 2020-11-01

Electoral college

Joe

Biden

53.2%

364

Donald

Trump

44.3%

174

270 to win

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes

Hawaii

4 electoral votes

Vermont

3 electoral votes

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes

Maryland

10 electoral votes
CA

California

55 electoral votes
NY

New York

29 electoral votes

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes

Connecticut

7 electoral votes

Washington

12 electoral votes
IL

Illinois

20 electoral votes
NJ

New Jersey

14 electoral votes

Delaware

3 electoral votes

Oregon

7 electoral votes

New Mexico

5 electoral votes

Colorado

9 electoral votes

Maine

4 electoral votes
VA

Virginia

13 electoral votes

Nevada

6 electoral votes

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
MI

Michigan

16 electoral votes

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
PA

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes

Arizona

11 electoral votes
FL

Florida

29 electoral votes
GA

Georgia

16 electoral votes
NC

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
TX

Texas

38 electoral votes
OH

Ohio

18 electoral votes

Iowa

6 electoral votes

South Carolina

9 electoral votes

Alaska

3 electoral votes

Kansas

6 electoral votes

Utah

6 electoral votes

Montana

3 electoral votes

Indiana

11 electoral votes

Missouri

10 electoral votes

Mississippi

6 electoral votes

Louisiana

8 electoral votes

Tennessee

11 electoral votes

Nebraska

5 electoral votes

Arkansas

6 electoral votes

Alabama

9 electoral votes

South Dakota

3 electoral votes

Kentucky

8 electoral votes

Idaho

4 electoral votes

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes

North Dakota

3 electoral votes

West Virginia

5 electoral votes

Wyoming

3 electoral votes

State Vote Estimates

A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.

State
Biden %
Trump %
Lead %
2016 Election