2020 Presidential Election Model
In recent US and UK elections, YouGov has used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or ‘MRP’ for short) to produce estimates for states in the US and constituencies in the UK. In cooperation with CBS News, YouGov has conducted interviews in every state over the course of the campaign. These final estimates were published on November 1st, are based on 99,049 interviews, and represent YouGov’s best assessment of the state of the race.
Last updated: 2020-11-01
Popular vote
Electoral college
Joe
Biden
53.2%
364
Donald
Trump
44.3%
174
District of Columbia
3 electoral votesHawaii
4 electoral votesVermont
3 electoral votesMassachusetts
11 electoral votesMaryland
10 electoral votesCA
California
55 electoral votesNY
New York
29 electoral votesRhode Island
4 electoral votesConnecticut
7 electoral votesWashington
12 electoral votesIL
Illinois
20 electoral votesNJ
New Jersey
14 electoral votesDelaware
3 electoral votesOregon
7 electoral votesNew Mexico
5 electoral votesColorado
9 electoral votesMaine
4 electoral votesVA
Virginia
13 electoral votesNevada
6 electoral votesNew Hampshire
4 electoral votesMinnesota
10 electoral votesMI
Michigan
16 electoral votesWisconsin
10 electoral votesPA
Pennsylvania
20 electoral votesArizona
11 electoral votesFL
Florida
29 electoral votesGA
Georgia
16 electoral votesNC
North Carolina
15 electoral votesTX
Texas
38 electoral votesOH
Ohio
18 electoral votesIowa
6 electoral votesSouth Carolina
9 electoral votesAlaska
3 electoral votesKansas
6 electoral votesUtah
6 electoral votesMontana
3 electoral votesIndiana
11 electoral votesMissouri
10 electoral votesMississippi
6 electoral votesLouisiana
8 electoral votesTennessee
11 electoral votesNebraska
5 electoral votesArkansas
6 electoral votesAlabama
9 electoral votesSouth Dakota
3 electoral votesKentucky
8 electoral votesIdaho
4 electoral votesOklahoma
7 electoral votesNorth Dakota
3 electoral votesWest Virginia
5 electoral votesWyoming
3 electoral votesState Vote Estimates
A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.
State | Biden % | Trump % | Lead % | 2016 Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 44.7 | 51.8 | Trump by 7.2% | Trump by 14.7% |
| Alabama | 39.0 | 59.4 | Trump by 20.4% | Trump by 27.7% |
| Arkansas | 38.9 | 58.4 | Trump by 19.5% | Trump by 26.9% |
| Arizona | 51.2 | 45.8 | Biden by 5.4% | Trump by 3.5% |
| California | 64.9 | 32.0 | Biden by 32.9% | Clinton by 30.1% |
| Colorado | 54.6 | 42.4 | Biden by 12.1% | Clinton by 4.9% |
| Connecticut | 61.1 | 37.0 | Biden by 24.1% | Clinton by 13.6% |
| District of Columbia | 91.3 | 6.8 | Biden by 84.5% | Clinton by 86.8% |
| Delaware | 59.2 | 38.6 | Biden by 20.6% | Clinton by 11.4% |
| Florida | 51.2 | 46.9 | Biden by 4.3% | Trump by 1.2% |
| Georgia | 50.4 | 47.3 | Biden by 3.1% | Trump by 5.1% |
| Hawaii | 66.0 | 30.3 | Biden by 35.6% | Clinton by 32.2% |
| Iowa | 48.6 | 49.0 | Trump by 0.5% | Trump by 9.4% |
| Idaho | 35.6 | 59.6 | Trump by 24.0% | Trump by 31.8% |
| Illinois | 60.1 | 37.2 | Biden by 22.9% | Clinton by 17.1% |
| Indiana | 43.9 | 53.7 | Trump by 9.8% | Trump by 19.2% |
| Kansas | 44.0 | 53.0 | Trump by 9.0% | Trump by 20.6% |
| Kentucky | 38.0 | 59.5 | Trump by 21.5% | Trump by 29.8% |
| Louisiana | 42.7 | 55.3 | Trump by 12.6% | Trump by 19.6% |
| Massachusetts | 66.1 | 31.6 | Biden by 34.4% | Clinton by 27.2% |
| Maryland | 65.5 | 32.2 | Biden by 33.3% | Clinton by 26.4% |
| Maine | 54.6 | 42.6 | Biden by 12.0% | Clinton by 3% |
| Michigan | 52.8 | 44.9 | Biden by 7.9% | Trump by 0.2% |
| Minnesota | 53.5 | 43.5 | Biden by 10.0% | Clinton by 1.5% |
| Missouri | 42.6 | 54.9 | Trump by 12.2% | Trump by 18.6% |
| Mississippi | 42.7 | 55.3 | Trump by 12.5% | Trump by 17.8% |
| Montana | 43.6 | 53.3 | Trump by 9.6% | Trump by 20.4% |
| North Carolina | 50.2 | 47.8 | Biden by 2.4% | Trump by 3.7% |
| North Dakota | 35.3 | 60.7 | Trump by 25.4% | Trump by 35.7% |
| Nebraska | 40.2 | 57.0 | Trump by 16.8% | Trump by 25% |
| New Hampshire | 53.7 | 43.6 | Biden by 10.1% | Clinton by 0.4% |
| New Jersey | 59.6 | 38.4 | Biden by 21.2% | Clinton by 14.1% |
| New Mexico | 55.8 | 40.9 | Biden by 14.9% | Clinton by 8.2% |
| Nevada | 53.8 | 43.6 | Biden by 10.2% | Clinton by 2.4% |
| New York | 63.9 | 34.3 | Biden by 29.6% | Clinton by 22.5% |
| Ohio | 48.8 | 49.2 | Trump by 0.4% | Trump by 8.1% |
| Oklahoma | 36.2 | 61.4 | Trump by 25.2% | Trump by 36.4% |
| Oregon | 58.2 | 38.4 | Biden by 19.8% | Clinton by 11% |
| Pennsylvania | 52.5 | 45.7 | Biden by 6.8% | Trump by 0.7% |
| Rhode Island | 61.0 | 36.5 | Biden by 24.5% | Clinton by 15.5% |
| South Carolina | 45.5 | 52.6 | Trump by 7.1% | Trump by 14.3% |
| South Dakota | 37.9 | 59.1 | Trump by 21.2% | Trump by 29.8% |
| Tennessee | 40.7 | 56.8 | Trump by 16.2% | Trump by 26% |
| Texas | 48.8 | 49.0 | Trump by 0.3% | Trump by 9% |
| Utah | 41.9 | 51.1 | Trump by 9.3% | Trump by 18.1% |
| Virginia | 54.6 | 43.0 | Biden by 11.6% | Clinton by 5.3% |
| Vermont | 66.3 | 30.8 | Biden by 35.4% | Clinton by 26.4% |
| Washington | 60.2 | 36.4 | Biden by 23.8% | Clinton by 15.7% |
| Wisconsin | 52.2 | 45.4 | Biden by 6.8% | Trump by 0.8% |
| West Virginia | 32.7 | 65.2 | Trump by 32.6% | Trump by 42.1% |
| Wyoming | 29.2 | 67.4 | Trump by 38.2% | Trump by 46.3% |
