2020 Presidential Election Model
In recent US and UK elections, YouGov has used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or ‘MRP’ for short) to produce estimates for states in the US and constituencies in the UK. In cooperation with CBS News, YouGov has conducted interviews in every state over the course of the campaign. These final estimates were published on November 1st, are based on 99,049 interviews, and represent YouGov’s best assessment of the state of the race.
Last updated: 2020-11-01
Popular vote
Electoral college
Joe
Biden
53.2%
364
Donald
Trump
44.3%
174
District of Columbia
3 electoral votesHawaii
4 electoral votesVermont
3 electoral votesMassachusetts
11 electoral votesMaryland
10 electoral votesCA
California
55 electoral votesNY
New York
29 electoral votesRhode Island
4 electoral votesConnecticut
7 electoral votesWashington
12 electoral votesIL
Illinois
20 electoral votesNJ
New Jersey
14 electoral votesDelaware
3 electoral votesOregon
7 electoral votesNew Mexico
5 electoral votesColorado
9 electoral votesMaine
4 electoral votesVA
Virginia
13 electoral votesNevada
6 electoral votesNew Hampshire
4 electoral votesMinnesota
10 electoral votesMI
Michigan
16 electoral votesWisconsin
10 electoral votesPA
Pennsylvania
20 electoral votesArizona
11 electoral votesFL
Florida
29 electoral votesGA
Georgia
16 electoral votesNC
North Carolina
15 electoral votesTX
Texas
38 electoral votesOH
Ohio
18 electoral votesIowa
6 electoral votesSouth Carolina
9 electoral votesAlaska
3 electoral votesKansas
6 electoral votesUtah
6 electoral votesMontana
3 electoral votesIndiana
11 electoral votesMissouri
10 electoral votesMississippi
6 electoral votesLouisiana
8 electoral votesTennessee
11 electoral votesNebraska
5 electoral votesArkansas
6 electoral votesAlabama
9 electoral votesSouth Dakota
3 electoral votesKentucky
8 electoral votesIdaho
4 electoral votesOklahoma
7 electoral votesNorth Dakota
3 electoral votesWest Virginia
5 electoral votesWyoming
3 electoral votesState Vote Estimates
A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.
State | Biden % | Trump % | Lead % | 2016 Election |
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