Republican Party 2012 Presidential Elections

Republican Party 2012 Presidential Elections

Tea Party Participants, Tea Party Supporters (who do not consider themselves part of the Tea Party) and the Rest of the Pool of Potential Republican Presidential nomination contest voters will vie in the next few months to choose the Republican party’s standard-bearer for the 2012 Presidential election.  In polls conducted July 23-26 and July 30-August 2, during the height of Washington negotiations over a debt-ceiling increase, YouGov identified three groups of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who will decide the Republican nomination for President, a race starting in just a few months in Iowa.

A little more than one-in-three of these Republicans identify themselves as part of the Tea Party.

Potential Republican Presidential Primary/Caucus Participants

Tea Party Participants

39%

Tea Party Supporters

32%

Rest of GOP:

29%

     Tea Party Opponents

5%

     Not much knowledge of Tea Party

24%

 

Tea Party Participants comprise 39% of the pool of potential 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination contest participants, and they took much of the credit (or blame) for the intransigence among House Republicans that ultimately led to a deficit-reduction package as part of the debt-ceiling increase that includes no revenue enhancements, only program spending cuts.  It is too early to know whether Tea Party Participants are satisfied with the actions of Congress and President Obama on this bill, but they are extremely happy with the Tea Party movement:  71% strongly support and 23% somewhat support the goals of the Tea Party movement.  Their favorites for the Republican Presidential nomination are Michelle Bachman (24%), Rick Perry (18%) and Herman Cain (10%).

Tea Party Supporters are the next largest segment, comprising 32% of potential 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination contest participants are all supportive of the Tea Party movement but less enthusiastic than Tea Party Participants in their support:  27% strongly support and 73% somewhat support the goals of the Tea Party movement.  Their favorites for the Republican Presidential nomination are Mitt Romney (24%), and Rick Perry (18%).

The Rest of the Republican Party comprise a total of 29%, and are themselves sharply divided into two camps of non-Tea Party supporters.  Tea Party Opponents say they somewhat or strongly oppose the goals of the Tea Party, comprise a miniscule 5% of the potential Presidential primary electorate, and have several favorites:  Ron Paul (26%), Rudy Giuliani (15%), Rick Perry (11%), and 11% have no preference.  In addition, there are those with Not Much Knowledge about the Tea Party, who say they neither support nor oppose the Tea Party’s goals or they have no opinion, or they just have not heard much at all about the Tea Party.  Their nomination preferences are Romney (24%), Sarah Palin (14%) and Giuliani (13%), and 21% have no preference.



Full Datasets for Economist/YouGov polls can be found here

 

Photo source:  Press Association