Marco Rubio currently leads the pack of declared Republican candidates for President, and is narrowly more popular among Republicans than Scott Walker
It took a while, but Florida Senator Marco Rubio is now among the most popular of Republicans: in this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll, his favorable-unfavorable ratio is among the best (in fact, only Ben Carson, who announced his candidacy last week, has both higher favorable and lower unfavorable ratings from Republicans – and those differences are just a point or two). At the moment, however, Rubio is clearly the leader among all six of the so-far announced candidates, and is even at the top of the overall Republican field, though the difference between Rubio and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is small.
Although there has been movement nearly every week on these questions, Rubio has almost always been near the top or in a close second grouping of Republican candidates. And he holds his own against some Republican powerhouses who have yet to announce. When matched head to head against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought of as Rubio’s mentor, registered voters who think of themselves as Republicans favor Rubio by two to one. Rubio also leads Walker in a head to head contest, but by less of a margin than he leads Bush.
Comparing the favorable ratings of these three men also demonstrates Rubio’s edge. Rubio is less disliked than Bush, and more liked than Walker. One month ago, when Rubio announced, he was much less well-known.
As might be expected, the public overall is less positive about each of these three Republicans. 51% overall have an unfavorable opinion of Bush. Walker and Rubio are about equally liked and disliked.
One of Rubio’s strengths could be his Hispanic origin (his parents emigrated from Cuba to the United States before Rubio was born). In this week’s poll, Hispanics like him, more than any other Republican (announced or unannounced) included in this poll. This week, Hispanics like Rubio more than they have in recent weeks. When Rubio announced his candidacy last week, Hispanics with an opinion of him were more negative than positive. The change this week has all been a gain in positive perceptions.
Most Hispanics in the Economist/YouGov polls are not Republicans, so their liking for Rubio is impressive. However, a third of Hispanics continue to hold unfavorable views of the Senator.
More than eight in ten Republicans describe immigration as an important issue to them. Most Republicans take a hard line on the issue: just about half of Republicans oppose a pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens who pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs, oppose temporary work authorizations and delayed deportation for the parents of U.S. citizens, even if they pass background checks and pay taxes, and oppose allowing those who arrived in the country as minors to remain even if they are in college and the military.
The public overall favors all three of these policies. Hispanics are even more supportive.
Rubio first supported a designated pathway to citizenship, but then opposed the bill he co-sponsored, saying that securing the border and creating merit-based immigration rules needed to be done before discussing a pathway to citizenship. While Rubio now takes a position closer to that of most Republicans, he now holds a position that most non-Republicans, and even more Hispanics, oppose. On this issue, what helps with Republicans could hurt in a general election.
Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here.
