Despite some gains, Trump is still short in key states
As the 2016 campaign comes to a close, YouGov’s final polls indicate that Donald Trump’s Presidential bid will fail in a set of must-win Battleground states, such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. Trump has made gains in Florida, where he is now tied with Clinton, and Ohio, where he holds a narrow lead. However, to win the necessary 270 electoral votes for a majority, Trump will need to carry at least three of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
YouGov polled ten states in the last four weeks. Some states were polled multiple times, so only the most recent survey is included in the table below. Seven of these ten surveys were conducted for CBS News and have been published previously. Additional surveys, conducted over the weekend in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Utah, are reported for the first time here.
Trump leads in four states. Trump holds comfortable margins in both Georgia and Utah. In Georgia, Trump has a six point margin, based upon overwhelmingly support among white voters in the state. Trump leads independent candidate Evan McMullin by 16 points, with Hillary Clinton in third place.
Three states are nearly toss-ups. Trump has a one point lead in Ohio, Florida is tied, and Clinton has a two-point advantage in Pennsylvania (down from an 8 point lead in our most recent CBS Battleground poll conducted October 26-28). Clinton was ahead of Trump by three points in North Carolina in our poll last week for CBS. If Trump could win all four of these states, he would have a good chance of winning the election, but Clinton can lose three of these four and still have a good chance of accumulating the 270 electoral vote needed for victory.
Some of these states also have important Senate races. If Clinton wins the Presidency, Democrats need a pickup of four seats to control the Senate. Republican held seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina are toss-ups, as is Nevada (currently held by retiring Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid).
YouGov’s previous CBS 2016 Battleground Tracker polling can be found here. These are individual polls which are weighted to state-level demographics and past vote. YouGov has also built a model to project outcomes for all 50 states, which can be found here.
Full tables: PDF