Optimism About 2011

YouGov
January 07, 2011, 8:00 PM GMT+0

Americans are more optimistic than not about the year ahead --- both when it comes to themselves and their families and when it comes to the world. But they don't feel any more positive about 2011 in this Economist/YouGov Poll (conducted the first week of this year) than they felt one year ago about the prospects for 2010.

42% of Americans are optimistic about the kind of year 2011 will be for the world. 28% are pessimistic. Last year, 42% were optimistic about 2010, and 32% were pessimistic. Americans feel better about what the year will bring to their families: more than twice as many (50%) are optimistic than pessimistic (21%). But that is not much different from what people thought in January 2010.

Among the more optimistic are those under 30, African-Americans, women, and college graduates. Democrats continue to be more optimistic than Republicans about the year ahead.

One of the reasons Americans may not be more hopeful is that many of them don't expect to see a lot of improvement in critical areas, though there is some hope when it comes to the country's most important issue --- the economy. 41% expect that the economy in their area will be better in two years than it is today, although more see no change or a continued worsening. Similarly, while 31% see improvement in job security in the next two years, one in four say that will be worse, and 28% see no change.

Two years from now, do you think things will be better off or worse off than they are now when it comes to:

Much betterSomewhat betterNo changeSomewhat worseMuch worseNot sure

The economy in your area

7%

34%

24%

14%

10%

11%

Job security

5%

29%

28%

14%

11%

13%

Social Security and Medicare

4%

17%

29%

18%

18%

14%

Government spending

4%

23%

28%

15%

18%

12%

But when it comes to economic areas where the government has the most control, Americans are dubious about improvements. Perhaps worried by Washington discussions about cuts in entitlement programs, 36% believe Social Security and Medicare will be in worse shape in two years than they are today, and only 21% think they will be better off. Older adults (and Republicans) are especially worried about the future of Social Security and Medicare.

And even though many of the successful Republican --- and Tea Party --- campaigns last November were based on promises to reduce government spending, so far the public doesn't expect much in the way of results. 27% say government spending will improve in two years; 33% say it will be worse. Among Republicans, 46% expect government spending to get worse, and just 27% see an improvement.

There is more Republican optimism when it comes to what the newly-elected Congress, with its a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, will accomplish in the coming year. 42% of Republicans expect the new Congress to accomplish more than usual, and just 8% say it will do less than usual.

The country overall is not so optimistic. Among all Americans, 19% say the new Congress will accomplish more than usual, but 29% think it will produce even less than it usually does.

The new Congress's Republican leaders are beginning to evoke the same partisan evaluations that Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid faced throughout their majority leadership terms. As Democrats learn about the Republican leaders, they learn not to like them. By a margin of 46% to 11%, Democrats hold an unfavorable view of the new House Speaker, John Boehner; by 46% to 9%, they are unfavorable towards the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell. Overall, Americans are somewhat negative about the Republican leaders.

Unfavorable views of Pelosi and Reid have declined slightly in the last week, as power has shifted away from them. 50\% still have an unfavorable view of Pelosi, down from 55% last week. Unfavorable ratings of Reid have dropped from 46% to 42%.

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