Seven in ten Democrats now expect Hillary Clinton to clinch the nomination
Even before her overwhelming victory in the South Carolina primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was gaining in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll among her party’s primary voters. She holds an 18-point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders among Democratic primary voters, doubling the lead she held in mid-January, before the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
Clinton’s and Sanders’ national support reflects what has been seen in entrance and exit polls. The two divide closely among white voters, while Clinton has large leads with minorities. Those under 30 favor Sanders by two to one, while Clinton is ahead with all other age groups. Voters who identify as Democrats (three-quarters of all primary voters) favor Clinton by a wide margin, while those who think of themselves as independents or something else like Sanders.
There is a gender gap. While both men and women lean towards Clinton, her margin among men is only six points (49%-43%). In this poll, women are giving her a two to one lead (62%-31%).
The poll was completed before the South Carolina results were known. But it appears Clinton’s victory in Nevada the Saturday before the poll was conducted solidified voter perception that she is the frontrunner and the likely Democratic nominee. This week, 56% of the public expects Clinton to become the Democratic nominee. Two weeks ago, after Sanders’ New Hampshire victory and the near-tie in Iowa the week before, just 41% thought that. Democratic primary voters increased their sense that Clinton would be the nominee as well.
Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters now believe Clinton has a better chance than her opponent of winning the November election, up nine points from two weeks ago.
Clinton not only has the edge in perceived electability, but she continues to be seen as having the advantage with Democratic primary voters on the ability to serve as Commander-in-Chief (where she outperforms every remaining GOP candidate with the public as a whole) and in trust in how she would deal in handling the economy, Sanders’ signature issue. However, her weakness continues to be the perception that she may not be honest, something 38% of Democratic primary voters believe.
And for Sanders’ Democratic supporters, honesty and integrity is even more of a problem for Clinton. 68% of Sanders’ Democratic primary voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. They do give Clinton high marks on her ability to serve as Commander-in-Chief, and divide closely on whether they are confident or uneasy about her handling of the economy. They say in this poll that they don’t like Clinton: her favorable ratings from Sanders’ current Democratic primary supporters are negative: 58% have an unfavorable view of Clinton, while just 42% are favorable. Clinton supporters like Sanders by three to one. Sanders voters divide on whether Clinton is running a fair or a dirty campaign.
In fact, one in three Sanders voters would be “upset” if Clinton won the nomination. 16% would vote for Donald Trump if Clinton were the Democratic nominee, another 14% would find someone else to vote for. However, polls conducted in the heat of a primary campaign often overestimate the level of November desertion by supporters of other candidates for the nomination.
Those current negative ratings of Clinton by Sanders’ supporters have made Sanders the better-liked, though not the most popular, candidate among all Democratic primary voters. However, there is not much difference in the enthusiasm levels Democratic voters would have if either candidate won their party’s nomination.
While Sanders and Clinton supporters both agree that it would be better if the party’s nominee were decided early during the campaign, and not at the nominating convention, Sanders voters, perhaps recognizing their candidate may be falling behind, are willing to have the campaign go on until the convention. A majority of Sanders supporters want the battle for the nomination to continue until then.
