Biden’s lead inches to 11 points in Economist/YouGov head-to-head poll

Linley SandersSenior Data Journalist
September 02, 2020, 6:57 PM GMT+0

The Democratic nominee for president, Joe Biden, holds an eleven-point national lead over President Donald Trump among registered voters, 51 percent to 40 percent. Just one in 12 registered voters (8%) say they are undecided (4%), will cast their ballot for another individual (2%), or plan to not vote (2%) in the 2020 election. 

The overall trial heat numbers from the Economist/YouGov Poll have not shifted significantly in recent weeks — in last week’s trial heat, Biden led by nine points. The former vice president continues to boast a strong lead among Black Americans (77% vs 13%), Hispanic Americans (60% vs 28%), adults under 30 years old (58% vs 25%), women (55% vs 36%), and moderate voters (60% vs 29%). 

Biden continues to lead in the Western region of the country (56% vs 34%) and the Northeast (55% vs 36%). The Midwest (48% vs 40%) favors Biden, while the South (48% vs 46%) is split between the two party nominees. 

Trump continues to slightly lead Biden among white Americans (48% vs 45%) and adults over 65 years old (49% vs 48%). Both candidates maintain strong margins with their political parties. Trump leads Republicans (91% vs 6%) and Biden leads Democrats (91% vs 4%). This week, Biden slightly leads among Independent voters (41% vs 40%).   

See the toplines and crosstabs from this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll 

Related: Explore the Economist/YouGov trended data on 2020 presidential voting intention  

MethodologyThe Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online between August 30 - September 1, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 3.5% for the overall sample. 

US Citizens were asked, “If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for... ” Response options:  Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Not Sure, and I would not vote. 

Image: Getty