U.S. Senate Race Gets a Little Closer in Pennsylvania

In the final day before the election, the race for U.S. Senate appears to be tightening, with Republican Pat Toomey's lead over Democrat Joe Sestak dropping from 6 percentage points to 4 among likely voters.  

Senate
  October 25-28, 2010 October 28-31, 2010
 Registered VotersLikely VotersRegistered VotersLikely Voters
Joe Sestak 40% 44% 41% 44%
Pat Toomey 46% 50% 46% 48%
The race for Governor remains the same with Republican Tom Corbett continuing to hold an 11 point lead among likely voters over Democrat Dan Onorato.
Governor
  October 25-28, 2010 October 28-31, 2010
 Registered VotersLikely VotersRegistered VotersLikely Voters
Dan Onorato 37% 41% 39% 40%
Tom Corbett 46% 50% 47% 51%

Independents move towards Republicans

Both the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and Governor gained some ground among likely voters who self identify as Independent. Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Joe Sestak lost support while Republican Pat Toomey gained support, and now leads among Independents by 5 percentage points. Sestak has consolidated his base to make up for some of the support he has lost among Independents, and now receives 86 percent among likely voters who are Democrat. Sestak has also picked up support among likely voters aged 18 to 29 years of age.  

Republican Gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett now leads Democratic candidate Dan Onorato by 12 percentage points among Independents, and has also grown his lead among men and white voters. Democrat Dan Onorato has been able to strengthen his base as he now receives 81 percent support among Democrats. 

Methodology

Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 779 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, and interviews with 700 registered voters, including 570 likely voters, were conducted October 28-31, 2010, online using YouGov's PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Pennsylvania registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).

 

News Release

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