by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Thu September 20, 2012 9 a.m. PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a strong 11-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, 51% Obama to 40% Romney, in a poll of 1,202 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
|Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, as 93% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 94% of Republicans are voting for Romney.|
|Independents split, 44% for Obama and 40% for Romney.|
|Women favor Obama by 57%-35%, while men are split, 46% for Romney to 45% for Obama.|
|Romney leads Wayne County (Detroit) 68%-25%, and Obama holds narrower Oakland/Macomb (51%-37%), Lansing-Ann Arbor (50%-41%).|
|Romney leads in North/Upper Peninsula, 50% Romney-41% Obama, and Grand Rapids, 49% Romney-46% Obama.|
|The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (50%-43%), but by a margin not much greater than Romney’s lead among Baby Boomers age 45-64 (50%-45%). The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (64%-25%).|
Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow leads by, 46%-38% lead over Republican Senate candidate Peter Hoekstra.
Voters in Michigan are divided on U.S. House race, with 40% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 43% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov’s panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,202 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 3.5 (adjusted for weighting)
Click here for a complete report of results