by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Thu September 20, 2012 9 a.m. PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a solid, nine-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, 51% Obama to 42% Romney, in a poll of 1,214 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
|Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, as 90% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 89% of Republicans are voting for Romney.|
|Independents split, 43% for Obama and 46% for Romney.|
|Women favor Obama by 60%-32%, while men favor Romney by 54%-42%.|
|Obama has a strong lead in Philadelphia (81%-18%), and a good lead in the Philadelphia Suburbs (55 - 38%) and the West (51%-41%).|
|The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (61%-36%). The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (72%-21%).|
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr holds 45%-37% lead over Republican Senate challenger Tom Smith.
Voters in Pennsylvania are very closely divided for the U.S. House race, with 40% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 38% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from the YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,214 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 3.9% (adjusted for weighting)
Click here for a complete report of results