by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Fri September 21, 2012 6 a.m. PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a twelve-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Mexico, 53% Obama to 41% Romney, in a poll of 331 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
New Mexico was not included in the re-contact of voters October 4-11
|In New Mexico:|
|Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides but strongest with Republicans, as 84% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 91% of Republicans are voting for Romney.|
|Independents favor Obama over Romney 50%-40%.|
|Women favor Obama by 56%-38%, and men favor Obama by a much narrower margin, 49%-44%.|
|Obama leads in the Sante Fe/Central region of the state (60%-30%), 56%-37% in Albuquerque, and 53%-45% in west New Mexico.|
|Romney holds a comfortable lead over Obama in Little Texas/East New Mexico (56%-39%).|
|The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (68%-28%). The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (55%-39%).|
In the race for Senate, Democratic candidate Martin Heinrich holds a 50%-35% lead over Republican Senate candidate Heather Wilson in the race to succeed Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman, who is stepping down.
Voters in New Mexico are leaning in favor of voting for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, with 44% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 37% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 331 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 7.8% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for a complete report of results