by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Tue October 16, 2012 noon PDT
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a marginal, 3-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Colorado, 48% Obama to 45% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 527 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).
|In Colorado (Oct 4-11):|
|Colorado is not a leading state for strong partisan loyalties, but 85% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 87% of Republicans are voting for Romney.|
|Independents are tied, 42% for Romney and 42% for Obama. In September, Obama led by a 48%-41% margin among likely voters who are Independents.|
|Women favor Obama by 54%-37%, while men favor Romney, 52% Romney-43% Obama.|
|Obama leads in the Denver/Boulder area (60%-35%), and is equally strong in the Denver suburbs (59%-36%), while Romney leads on the Front Range (53% Romney-39% Obama) and the rest of the state (65%-29%).|
|The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney (59%-39%). Likely voters age 30-44 favor Obama (62%-30%), while an enormous number of the youngest likely voters under age 30 report they plan to vote for another candidate or are not sure, mostly cutting into Obama’s vote.|
|Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11|
Voters in Colorado are evenly divided when it comes to voting for House of Representatives from their Congressional district, with 41% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 41% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 74.9%.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 527 likely voters.
Margin of error ±5.3% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).