Michigan

Michigan

Democratic President Barack Obama has maintained his 10-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, 52% Obama to 42% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 895 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Michigan (Oct 4-11):
Michigan is a state with strong partisan loyalties, with 94% of Democrats sticking with Obama and a matching 94% of Republicans voting for Romney.
The vote is close among likely voters who are Independents, 46% Obama-43% Romney.
Women favor Obama by a whopping 61%-36%, while men favor the challenger by a much more modest margin, 48% Romney-45% Obama.
Obama enjoys a very wide 61%-27% lead in Wayne County (Detroit) and solid advantages as well in Oakland/Macomb (55%-40%) and Lansing/Ann Arbor (54%-40%).  Romney leads in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, 55% Romney-43% Obama, while it is a close contest around Grand Rapids, 50% Romney-47% Obama. 
The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney by solid margin over Obama (57% Romney-40% Obama), but the candidates are essentially tied among Baby Boomers (49% Romney-47% Obama).  Obama’s lead is strong among those age 30-44 (54% Obama-35% Romney), and Obama leads by a nearly 4-to-1 margin among the youngest Michiganders under age 30.
Among likely voters who are Independents, the race is unchanged since September, with neither campaign making much of an effort here to change the minds of Independent likely voters.
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11
Barack Obama 52% 52% 46% 46%
Mitt Romney 42% 42% 43% 43%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow leads by 49%-39% over Republican Senate candidate Peter Hoekstra among likely voters.  She was never really challenged in this race, which stood at 46%-40% among these likely voters in September.

Democrats have moved to a 45%-40% lead statewide when likely voters are asked which candidate they will vote for in their U.S. House Congressional district.

Sampling method:  Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll.  The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 80.9%.

Weighting:  The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents:  895 likely voters.

Margin of error ±3.9% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).


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