by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Tue October 16, 2012 noon PDT
Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely voters from the Lone Star state (recontacted from an initial September poll).
|In Texas (October 4-11):|
|Texas’s likely voters are extremely partisan in their approach, with 99% of Democrats sticking with Obama, and 96% of Republicans voting for Romney.|
|Romney has a solid lead among likely voters who are Independents, 50% Romney-41% Obama.|
|Women in Texas slightly favor the incumbent, 50% Obama-45% Romney, while men favor the challenger by 2-to-1, 65%-33%.|
|Romney leads in West Texas (72%-19%), East Texas (66%-25%) and south central Texas (54%-44%).|
|The oldest likely voters in Texas age 65+ favor Romney over Obama by more than 2-to-1 (67% Romney-31% Obama), and Romney also leads among Texas’s Baby Boomers, but by a narrower 62%-36% margin. The candidates are essentially tied among voters age 30-44, 49% Romney-47% Obama, while Obama leads among the youngest likely voters. Romney maintains a solid, albeit narrowing lead among Texas likely voters who are Independents, where Romney was leading 51%-37% in September with this key swing group, and Romney leads, 50%-41% among these same Independent likely voters today.|
|Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11|
In the race for Senate, Republican Ted Cruz holds a 51%-36% lead over Democratic candidate Paul Sadler in the race to replace the retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
In the race for U.S. Representative for their Congressional districts, 52% intend to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 36% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted October 4-11.
Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 83.4%.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 958 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.5% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).