California

California

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a solid 15-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in California, 55% Obama to 40% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,575 likely voters statewide. 

In California ( Oct 31-Nov 3):
Independents have the candidates split at an even 44% each.
Obama leads strongly in the Bay area and L.A. County (68%-25% and 65%-31% respectively), and is fairly strong in the Coastal area (50%-43%), while Romney leads in the Inland/Valley area and in Southern California (50%-45% and 50%-46%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-Nov 3 Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-Nov 3
Barack Obama 56% 58% 55% 40% 40% 44%
Mitt Romney 39% 39% 40% 50% 52% 44%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein continues to hold a strong 56%-39% lead over Republican Senate challenger Elizabeth Emken. 

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.  

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: XYZ likely voters. Margin of error ±X.Y% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).


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