by YouGov Staff in Politics and State Politics
Sun November 4, 2012 8:30 a.m. PST
Democratic President Barack Obama holds a strong 23-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New York, 59% Obama to 36% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,430 likely voters statewide.
|In New York (Oct 31-Nov 3):|
|Independents give Romney a 5-point lead, 48% for Romney and 43% for Obama.|
|Obama leads in New York City, the Hudson Valley and the Urban Upstate (76%-21%, 53%-41%, and 50%-43% respectively), while Romney leads in Long Island and the Rural Upstate (53%-44% and 50%-44%).|
|Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)|
|Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Oct 31-Nov 3||Sept 7-14||Oct 4-11||Oct 31-Nov 3|
Incumbent Democratic Senator Kristen Gillibrand continues to hold a strong 61%-29% lead over Republican Senate challenger Wendy Long.
The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,430 likely voters. Margin of error ±2.8% (adjusted for weighting).
Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).
Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).
Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).