Donald Trump continues to lead in the Republican 2016 race and two-thirds of GOP supporters think he could win the general election
Donald Trump continues to lead all Republican candidates in the latest Economist/You Gov Poll – despite criticism of some statements he made during the GOP debate earlier this month. His closest competitor (far behind Trump) is another candidate without a political resume – former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, narrowly ahead of two Floridians, former Governor Jeb Bush and current Senator Marco Rubio.
Trump is just about as likely to be named as the Republicans’ second choice as each of the other top four. His ride at the top of opinion polls more than four months before the first official presidential nominating event has lasted much longer than many pundits predicted.
Trump’s supporters for the most part are significantly less wealthy than the New York developer. He is the choice of about one in three registered voters who call themselves Republicans whose family incomes are below $80,000 a year. In fact, among Republicans with incomes above $80,000, Trump fares less well: he is in a tight race in that group with Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
Trump has overcome an earlier perception that he won’t win. In this week’s poll, one in four Republicans describe Trump as the party’s likely nominee. Slightly fewer, 22%, say Bush will win the nomination. In most previous polls, Bush was viewed as the likely winner.
Those two men are the two GOP contenders who are also viewed as possible winners by the general public. However, it’s worth noting that even more people believe Democrat Hillary Clinton could win the general election than say the same about Trump or Bush.
As for Republicans, two in three say Trump can win next November. Nearly as many say that about Bush and Rubio. Majorities of Republicans also see Carson, Cruz and Walker as possible general election winners, with almost half thinking Carly Fiorina could win. Fiorina is overwhelmingly seen as the Republican who performed best in the non-primetime Republicans debate earlier this month. While only 6% of Republicans say they support Fiorina for the nomination, 11% say she is their second choice, just about as many who say that about the top four Republicans.
Trump has bounced back from the slight drop in favorability he experienced after the Republican debate. Now, nearly two in three Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump. However, one in three Republicans continue to have an unfavorable opinion of him.
However, there continue to be several other Republicans who fare better than Trump when it comes to favorability. That group includes Rubio, Carson and Cruz. More than six in ten Republicans are favorable towards each of those men; the difference between them and Trump is that far fewer hold unfavorable opinions of these three candidates than are negative towards Trump.
One reason for Trump’s dominance may be the importance Republicans give to the issue of immigration. Two-thirds of Republicans say it is very important to them (less than half of Democrats and independents think that). 13% of Republicans say it is their most important issue. Trump supporters are nearly twice as likely to say immigration matters most to them – slightly more than say that about the overall public’s number one issue, the economy. 23% of Trump supporters say immigration is their most important issue; 21% of them cite the economy.
See the Economist/YouGov results.
Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here.
