Just before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point, one in five Americans still expected interest rates to continue to rise in the near future, the latest Economist / YouGov Poll finds.
Younger Americans, Republicans, and Americans who follow the news less closely were more likely to expect higher interest rates in six months, while older Americans, Democrats, and those who follow the news more closely were more likely to expect lower interest rates.
Beliefs about interest and inflation have been changing rapidly in recent months. The July 7 - 9 Economist / YouGov Poll found that 40% of U.S. adult citizens expected inflation to be higher in six months. A little more than two months later, that's down to 20% who expected higher inflation.
The share expecting inflation to fall has risen slightly from 16% to 23%, while the share who aren't sure what future inflation will be is up from 18% to 30%.
However, Americans are likelier to expect gas and groceries to cost more in six months than to cost less.
Nearly half (47%) of Americans say the overall economy is getting worse, but only 17% expect their own family’s economic situation will be worse in a year while 24% say it will be better.
Americans are far more likely to say they are hearing mostly negative stories about the economy (42%) than to say they are hearing mostly positive ones (12%). This is strongly associated with political party: 22% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans say they are hearing mostly negative news about the economy.
Americans have mixed feelings about the Federal Reserve and other financial entities. The September 8 - 10 Economist / YouGov Poll — conducted a week before Wednesday's rate cuts — found that 41% of U.S. adult citizens had very or somewhat favorable views of the Federal Reserve, while 36% had very or somewhat unfavorable views.
The Federal Reserve is more popular than banks, which are viewed favorably by 39% of Americans and unfavorably by 45%. 59% of Americans don't know enough about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to have an opinion about him; those who do are split, with 19% favorable and 22% unfavorable.
Compared to Democrats, Republicans are more likely to have favorable views of banks, and unfavorable views of the Federal Reserve, Powell, and the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs from the Economist/YouGov poll conducted on September 15 - 17, 2024 among 1,592 U.S. adult citizens.
Methodology: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty
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