Ahead of the Academy Awards on Sunday, March 2, a YouGov poll asked Americans what they think about this year’s slate of Best Picture nominees, diversity at the Oscars, and whether it’s appropriate for Oscar winners to discuss politics in their speeches. "Wicked" is the top Best Picture pick but it's a divided field with a majority who aren't sure which film should win. And most Americans don't remember which film won last year's Best Picture award.
26% of Americans are planning to watch some or all of the 2025 Academy Awards; adults under 45 (36%) are more likely than older Americans (18%) to plan on watching. 45% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the choice to have Conan O’Brien host. Among people who plan to watch, 75% approve of O’Brien taking on the hosting responsibilities.
Which Best Picture nominees have Americans seen? “Dune: Part Two” tops the list: 21% say they’ve seen it. “Wicked” is a close second, at 18%. Fewer have seen “Conclave” (11%) or “The Substance” (11%). No more than 6% have seen each of the other six nominees. 60% have seen no more than one of the nominees.
62% have not seen “Emilia Pérez” and don’t want to; 61% say the same about “Nickel Boys”. At least 44% say that about each of the 10 nominees.
Americans have overwhelmingly positive opinions about the Best Picture nominees they’ve seen. Among people who saw “Dune: Part Two,” 53% loved it and 40% liked it. Among viewers who saw “Wicked,” 47% loved it and 45% liked it.
The Best Picture nominee that viewers are most likely to have negative opinions of is “Emilia Pérez,” which 18% disliked or hated. However, far more viewers (82%) loved or liked it.
Which movie do Americans think will win Best Picture — and which one do they think should win? “Wicked” is the top choice for both: 17% think it will win Best Picture and 13% believe it should. 8% think “Dune: Part Two” will win Best Picture and 11% think it should win. 5% think “The Brutalist” will win Best Picture; 2% say it should.
Viewers of each Best Picture nominee are more likely than the general population to believe it should win the Oscar. 34% of Americans who saw “Dune: Part Two” think it should win Best Picture, compared with 11% of Americans overall. 30% of U.S. adult citizens who saw “Wicked” think this film should win Best Picture compared with 13% overall. 26% of Americans who saw “Conclave” think it should win but only 4% of Americans overall say the same.
A year from now, a majority of Americans might not remember who wins Best Picture. 58% are not sure which movie won Best Picture in 2024. 29% correctly remember that it was “Oppenheimer.” 13% incorrectly believed it was another one of the nominees, including “Barbie” (5%) and “Killers of the Flower Moon” (4%).
American opinion about the diversity of Oscar nominees has changed slightly over the last five years. 33% of Americans say the Oscars do not have a diversity problem and 24% say the Oscars do have a diversity problem. In 2023 and 2024, like this year, Americans were more likely to say the Oscars do not have a diversity problem than to say it does. In 2020, YouGov polling found that 32% of Americans believed the Oscars had a diversity problem — meaning nominees that year were not sufficiently diverse in terms of race, nationality, and/or gender — and 22% said it did not. In 2022, 27% believed the Oscars had a diversity problem and 25% said it did not.
Black Americans (37%) and Hispanic Americans (30%) are more likely than white Americans (21%) to say the Oscars have a diversity problem.
Is it appropriate for Oscar winners to discuss politics in their acceptance speeches? 28% of Americans say it is, but far more (51%) say it is not appropriate. Democrats (49%) are more likely than Independents (27%) and Republicans (8%) to say it is appropriate.
Related:
- For most film fans, the 2024 Oscars are about 'Oppenheimer' and 'Barbie'
- No talking and no texting: Americans' rules for movie theater etiquette
See the results for this YouGov survey
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
Methodology: The poll was conducted online among 2,207 U.S. adult citizens on two separate surveys from February 19 - 21, 2025 and February 24 - 26, 2025. Some questions were asked on only the February 19 - 21 survey. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 2.5%.
Image: Getty (Jamie McCarthy / Staff)
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