The longer the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, the more uncertain Americans are that there will ever be peace in the Middle East, with many leaning toward blaming Hamas for the current war. A recent YouGov survey asked questions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that have been asked in the past to see if American opinion has changed.
About two-thirds of Americans say the Israeli-Palestinian conflict matters at least a fair amount to them and this share has held constant since October 2023, the last time YouGov polled the question. Compared to October 2023, more Americans say the conflict does not matter much or at all to them. Fewer Democrats and Republicans now than last year, but more Independents, say that the conflict matters to them a great deal.
Americans' outlook on the future of the conflict is largely negative, with most Americans saying they do not think there will ever be peace in the Middle East. 51% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 70% of Republicans say they do not think there will ever be peace in the Middle East. These numbers have changed little since the last time YouGov asked the question in October 2023, when 48% of Democrats, 63% of Independents, and 76% of Republicans said there would never be peace in the Middle East.
Adults under 30 are narrowly split on the issue, with 37% saying there will never be peace and 35% saying there will. By contrast, majorities of older age groups say there will never be peace in the Middle East. The more important the conflict is to Americans, the more likely they are to expect eventual peace. Among people who say the conflict matters a great deal to them, 22% expect peace eventually; just 5% do among people who say the conflict does not matter at all to them. But within each group the share who say there will never be peace is much larger than the share who expect peace.
How do these numbers compare to Americans’ past opinions on the future of the conflict?
Compared to various polls conducted between 2002 and 2009, more Americans are unsure about the possibility of future peace in the Middle East. While the share of Americans who say the conflict will never be resolved has steadily declined since 2006, the share of adults who say the opposite has fluctuated more: more Americans were showing a positive outlook in 2009, only for the share to decline again after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel.
The more the conflict in the Middle East goes on, the more Americans are willing to take a side. In 2003, 65% of Americans said the failure to reach peace in the Middle East was due to both the Israeli and the Palestinian people equally; only 30% blamed either side more than ever. In the months since Hamas’ latest attack on Israel, American opinion has become more divided. Currently, 15% of Americans say the Israelis are to blame, while 29% say the opposite: that Palestinians are to blame. These numbers closely mirror Americans’ answers from four months ago.
Democrats and adults under 30 are more likely than Republicans and older Americans to say the Israelis are to blame for the failure to end the conflict. 51% of Republicans and 40% of Americans 65 and older say the Palestinians are to blame.
Another recent YouGov poll found that more Americans distinguish between Hamas and Palestinians now than did back in 2009, but how does that factor into placing blame on Israel compared to Hamas after the October 2023 attack by Hamas and Israel's military response in Gaza?
The share of Americans who say Hamas is more to blame than Israel for the war is similar to the share who said the same — about a previous conflict — in a 2009 poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics/Fox News (44%). Today, about half of Americans — including 39% of Democrats, 38% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans — say Hamas is more to blame for the current war in the Gaza Strip. For each of the political parties, these numbers are sharply higher than the shares who place blame on Palestinians for failing to achieve peace (13% for Democrats, 25% for Independents, 56% for Republicans) — demonstrating a distinction being drawn between Hamas and the Palestinian people.
Their own views aside, how do Americans think the rest of the world perceives the conflict? In the months since the October attack, the share of Americans who say the world is more sympathetic to the Palestinian position has increased, while the share who say the opposite — that the world is more sympathetic to the Israeli position — has decreased. Compared to 22 years ago, fewer Americans now say that the world’s view of the conflict is balanced between the positions of the Israelis and the Palestinians.
While Americans are narrowly split on which side of the conflict gets more sympathy worldwide, more say that the press has been too critical in the way it has covered the actions of Israel than say the same about the press coverage of Hamas' actions. Republicans are more likely than Democrats and Independents to agree that the press has been too harsh in its coverage of Israel.
As part of the recent poll, YouGov also ran an experiment where similar questions about the conflict were asked either by using the word “genocide” directly with no definition of the term, or by giving one description of genocide without using the term.
Regarding Israel's actions that affect the Palestinian people, Americans are slightly more likely to say that is taking actions intended to destroy all Palestinian people than they are to say that Israel is committing genocide Israel. This gap is wider for Republicans and Independents than it is for Democrats.
As for Hamas's actions concerning Israel, Republicans are more likely to say that Hamas is taking actions intended to destroy all Israeli people than they are to say that Hamas is committing genocide against Israeli civilians.
Overall, Americans are more likely to say that Hamas is committing genocide against Israeli civilians than to say that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians. The same pattern is also true when the question includes a definition of genocide instead of the word itself.
— Taylor Orth, David Montgomery, and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Related:
- Has genocide been happening in either Israel or Gaza? On both, Americans are split
- The different ways Americans, Israeli Jews, and Israeli Arabs have viewed the Israel-Hamas war
- Polls from the Past: How opinion has changed on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
- How much Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war is hurting him with pro-Palestinian Democrats
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 2,000 U.S. adult citizens on two separate surveys from February 2 - 5, 2024 and February 6 - 9, 2024, with each survey taken by 1,000 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
