Democratic President Barack Obama has a strong lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney of 24 percentage points in Illinois, at 59%-35%, in a poll of 1,188 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
|Partisan loyalty is strong among both groups, but stronger among Democrats (95% of Democrats favor Obama), than Republicans (90% favor Romney).|
|Independents however are fairly evenly split at 46% Obama, 43% Romney.|
|Women and men in Illinois favor Obama, but his lead is much stronger among women (64%-30%) than men (53%-41%).|
|Unsurprisingly, Obama’s strongest region lead is in Chicago, where he enjoys a 66-point lead over Romney (81%-15%).|
|He also leads in the Cook County Suburbs (56%-38%) and the Collar Counties (58%-34%).|
|Romney has a strong lead in the South of Illinois (58%-38%) and a small one-point lead in the North (46%-45%).|
|The oldest age group, 65+, only marginally favors Romney, at 49%-48%, while Obama carries strong favor among the youngest (under 30s): 77% to 16%.|
Voters in Illinois tend towards the Democratic candidates on the vote for U.S. House, with 45% intending to vote Democrat for the House in their district, and 32% for Republican.
The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,188 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 3.3% (adjusted for weighting).
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