How Will The Undecideds Break?
This question obviously has important implications for who wins this election. We can start by dismissing the blanket statement that “challengers break for the incumbent.” That is not true as a blanket statement. See Daron Shaw’s chapter on swing votes in Unconventional Wisdom as well as <a ...26 Oct 2012
Romney's Debate Win Was About Personality More Than Policy
I've already noted that, in the wake of last week's presidential debate, voters' perceptions of Romney and Obama's ideologies didn't change much, despite Romney's much ballyhooed pivot to the center. Now, I will show what did change: the impressions voters had of Obama and Romney as people. YouGov polls ...11 Oct 2012
Romney's Pivot To The Center Hasn't Worked (But It Didn't Need To.)
Perhaps you've heard about Romney's pivot to the center in last week's debate -- what it means, whether it will work, how Obama is responding, etc. Yesterday, Bill Clinton described his reaction to Romney's performance thusly: "Wow, here's old moderate Mitt. Where ya been, boy?" New survey data suggests ...11 Oct 2012
No, The GOP Is Not "Winning The Battle Over Paul Ryan"
Aaron Blake of the Washington Post’s The Fix blog: Say what you want about Paul Ryan’s politics; even Democrats in Congress struggle to find a negative word to say about him. At least, that’s what Republicans have been arguing for the last two weeks. And when ...29 Aug 2012
Have The Republicans Fought To A Draw On Medicare?
Republicans say yes. Steven Benen agrees. I think that conclusion is premature. The Democrats and Obama retain key advantages on this issue—that is, this particular fight is not yet a draw. The Republicans continue to fight an uphill battle. Here is why. 1) Do ...29 Aug 2012
What Romney Can Do In Tampa (In One Graph)
Here is something you don't hear too much: voters view Mitt Romney about as favorably as Barack Obama. At least if voters are asked about whether the candidates are knowledgeable or decent or intelligent or moral or a strong leader. Those are important qualities, and perceptions of Romney and Obama ...27 Aug 2012
What Do Americans Know About Paul Ryan?
With Mitt Romney having picked Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate, we can shed some light on these questions: What do people know about Ryan? And what do they think of him? A series of polls done by YouGov for the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project suggests that most ...11 Aug 2012
Are Mitt Romney's Wealth and Taxes Taxing His Campaign?
Back in January, Lynn Vavreck, Joshua Tucker, and I asked this question: what would happen if people knew more specific details about Mitt Romney's income and tax rate? We conducted a simple experiment the exposed people to information about these topics. In this post, I will report on a ...07 Aug 2012
What If Every American Favored Same-Sex Marriage?
Earlier I suggested that anyone writing about the electoral implications of Obama's support of gay marriage needed to think rigorously about some key questions. This is in lieu of flabby statements about how Obama's endorsement "could" lead "some voters" in "key battleground states" to "reconsider" their support for him. Etc. ...10 May 2012
The Blame Game
The economy seems to be weakening, and Republicans are eager to blame Obama. This is by-the-books political messaging: the party opposing the incumbent president should talk about the economy when its weak. But the success of the attack, as Steve Kornacki notes, may depend on whether ...27 Apr 2012