Brown Opens Wide Lead Over Whitman, Boxer–Fiorina Race Tightens
Gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown enjoys a modest lead of 9 points over his Republican counterpart, Meg Whitman, according to a poll of likely voters in California. Meanwhile in the Senate race Democrat Barbara Boxer looks set to receive 49% of the Californian vote, with Republican Carly Fiorina close at her heels with 45%. In each race, the Democratic candidates’ share of the vote is the same among all voters and likely voters, while the Republican candidates’ share among likely voters is about 3 percentage points better than among all voters, suggesting a slight advantage for Republicans among the most enthusiastic voters.
Senate
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Barbara Boxer | 49% | 49% |
Carly Fiorina | 42% | 45% |
While Boxer looks set to lead Fiorina overall, the trend is reversed when only male voting intentions are taken into account. The Republican candidate leads the Democrat by 9 points among likely male voters. The same pattern can be seen among more elderly voters, with Fiorina receiving 59% of the likely over 65 vote, to Boxer’s 36%. Boxer, for her part receives a proportionally larger share of the young and non-white vote, leading Fiorina by 18 and 22 points among the aged 18-29 and non-white electorate respectively.
Governor
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Jerry Brown | 49% | 50% |
Meg Whitman | 38% | 41% |
The race for Governor does not have such dramatic differences when broken down into de- mographic groups. However the Democratic candidate has a notable lead of 34 points over the Republican among likely voters aged 18-29. Also, Brown gets majority support among likely Independent voters (52%) and leads Whitman among likely white voters (49%-42%).
Methodology
Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 814 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the California registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).
