This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted July 2-4, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±3.9%.
GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?
- Hillary Clinton: 42%
- Donald Trump: 37%
- Gary Johnson: 4%
- Jill Stein: 3%
- Someone else: 4%
- Not sure yet: 9%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question.
- Hillary Clinton: 47%
- Donald Trump: 42%
- Someone else / Not sure yet / No preference: 9%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
CONGRESS (among registered voters):
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
- The Democratic Party candidate: 45%
- The Republican Party candidate: 36%
- Other: 3%
- Not sure: 13%
- I would not vote: 3%
Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):
- Approve: 45% (-2)
- Disapprove: 49% (0)
Among registered voters, 43% approve of Obama and 54% disapprove.
Approval of Congress:
- Approve: 10% (-4)
- Disapprove: 64% (+5)
Direction of the country:
- Right direction: 26% (0)
- Disapprove: 64% (+1)
- 52% of Americans now expect Hillary Clinton to defeat Donald Trump in November. This includes 25% of Republicans (up from 19% last week)
- Asked whether each candidate had a well run or poorly managed campaign, 57% of Americans say Clinton's campaign is well run, while only 31% say the same for Donald Trump. 55% believe Donald Trump's campaign has been poorly managed.
- By 43% to 38%, conservatives say Donald Trump is a better leader for conservatives than House Speaker Paul Ryan. By 42% to 38% liberals say Bernie Sanders is a better leader for liberals than Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
- Favorability ratings are given for a number of different potential vice presidential candidates, but the majority of Americans have no opinion on all but Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich, both of whom are viewed negatively on balance.
Rio Olympics and Zika
- Americans are divided on whether the Rio Olympics will be a success. 41% expect it will be successful and 40% expect it will be unsuccessful.
- Only 23% think the International Olympic Committee made a good decision in selecting Rio de Janeiro to host the Summer Olympic Games.
- 31% say there is at least a "big risk" that athletes will bring the Zika virus back to the United States.
- By 39% to 7% Americans say the government should increase rather than decrease funding for research into the Zika virus, while 35% want funding kept where it is now.
- Favorable opinions of the Supreme Court have fallen since last week's poll, from 47% favorable and 37% unfavorable to 41% favorable and 45% unfavorable this week.
- Recent rulings have received mixed reactions (each decision was breifly described in the question):
- Affirmative action ruling: 35% approve, 35% disapprove
- Immigration action ruling: 47% approve, 41% disapprove
- Exclusionarly rule decision: 35% approve, 47% disapprove
- Abortion decision: 51% approve, 30% disapprove
Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF
Topline summary: PDF
The Tracking Report: PDF