This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted August 6-9, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±3.9% (4.2% for registered voters).
GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?
- Hillary Clinton: 42% (+1)
- Donald Trump: 36% (0)
- Gary Johnson: 9% (+1)
- Jill Stein: 2% (-2)
- Someone else: 2%
- Not sure yet: 6%
- Probably won't vote: 3%
Nine percent is Gary Johnson's best showing in the 4-way match up so far, and 42% ties with Clinton's previous best showing in early July.
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question.
- Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2)
- Donald Trump: 41% (-2)
- Someone else / Not sure yet / No preference: 8%
- Probably won't vote: 3%
Hillary Clinton favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 41% (-3)
- Unfavorable: 57% (+3)
Though it fell slightly last week, Hillary Clinton's unfavorable rating is at the highest level ever recorded by YouGov, 57% (it has reached 56% on five occasions since January).
Donald Trump favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 34% (+1)
- Unfavorable: 63% (-1)
CONGRESS (among registered voters):
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
- The Democratic Party candidate: 41% (-3)
- The Republican Party candidate: 39% (+3)
- Other: 3%
- Not sure: 16%
- I would not vote: 2%
Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):
- Approve: 50% (0)
- Disapprove: 47% (+3)
Among registered voters, 49% approve of Obama and 49% disapprove.
Approval of Congress:
- Approve: 13% (+3)
- Disapprove: 62% (-3)
Direction of the country:
- Right direction: 29% (0)
- Disapprove: 63% (+2)
- Since last week, Clinton has seen a decrease in the number who say they are confident in her ability to deal with terrorism (from 44% to 40%) and who say they are confident in her ability to deal with the economy (43% to 39%), returning to levels similar to before the Democratic convention.
- 54% expect Clinton to win the election, compared to 52% last week. 21% expect a Clinton landslide, while 8% expect the same for Trump.
- 48% of Americans are confident in Clinton's ability to handle the responsibility of controlling the country's nuclear weapons, versus 40% who are uneasy. For Trump, only 27% are confident and 63% are uneasy.
- Many Americans are doubtful Trump will participate in all the presidential debates this year: 38% think he will refuse to participate in at least one debate, while 34% disagree and 28% are unsure.
- In general, 65% of Americans say it is inappropriate to attack a politician for something their spouse did.
- 68% say it was inappropriate for the New York Post to publish nude photographs of Donald Trump's wide, Melania. Even more, 77%, think it's inappropriate to use the photos to attack Donald Trump.
- Similarly, 62% of Americans think it's inappropriate to try to use Bill Clinton's past personal behavior to attack Hillary Clinton.
- However, by 45% to 38%, Americans tend to say it is appropriate for the media to investigate whether Melania Trump violated immigration laws when she came to the United States.
Rio Olympics and Zika
- 53% of Americans expect the Rio Olympic Games to be a success. In 2014, soon after the start of the Sochi Olympic Games, only 36% expected success. However, that number rose to 49% the following week.
- Only 23% of Americans think the International Olympic Committee made a good decision putting the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. 46% say it was a bad decision.
- 63% are at least somewhat concerned about Olympic athletes contracting Zika while in Brazil.
- Americans tend to think the US is not doing enough or spending enough to prevent a Zika outbreak in the country, but many remain unsure about the issue.
Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF
Topline summary: PDF
National Tracking Report: PDF
Presidential Election Tracking Report: PDF