This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted September 18-19, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±3.9% (4% for 936 registered voters).
GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?
- Hillary Clinton: 40% (-2)
- Donald Trump: 38% (-2)
- Gary Johnson: 7% (+2)
- Jill Stein: 2% (-1)
- Someone else: 2%
- Not sure yet: 9%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question.
- Hillary Clinton: 45% (-1)
- Donald Trump: 44% (0)
- Someone else / Not sure yet / No preference: 9%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
What do you think is the most likely outcome of the presidential election with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?
- Clinton will win in a landslide: 16% (-3)
- Clinton will win narrowly: 33% (+1)
- Trump will win narrowly: 23% (+3)
- Trump will win in a landslide: 10% (+1)
- Not sure: 20% (+4)
Hillary Clinton favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 44% (-2)
- Unfavorable: 54% (+1)
Donald Trump favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 36% (0)
- Unfavorable: 60% (-2)
Among registered voters, Trump and Clinton are evenly matched in favorability: both receive 38% favorable and 58% unfavorable opinions.
CONGRESS (among registered voters):
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
- The Democratic Party candidate: 43% (-1)
- The Republican Party candidate: 36% (-2)
- Other: 4%
- Not sure: 15%
- I would not vote: 2%
Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):
- Approve: 46% (-2)
- Disapprove: 49% (+2)
Among registered voters, 47% approve of Obama and 51% disapprove.
Approval of Congress:
- Approve: 10% (-3)
- Disapprove: 63% (+2)
Direction of the country:
- Right direction: 29% (+4)
- Wrong Track: 61% (-5)
- 67% of US adults (and 74% of registered voters) say they will probably or definitely watch the first presidential debate
- 39% expect Hillary Clinton to do better in the debate, while 27% expect Donald Trump to do better
- 39% say Donald Trump is more likely to "misstate facts" during the debate, while 21% say so for Hillary Clinton. 32% say both are equally likely.
- However, by 51% to 32% Americans think the moderators should correct participants who say something untrue, rather than leave the participants to correct each other.
- 52% of Americans think at least half of Donald Trump's supporters are racist
- 49% think Donald Trump has "intentionally" tried to win support from white nationalists and racists
- However, by 51% to 31% Americans say Clinton was wrong to make the "basket of deplorables" remarks
- 42% of Americans agree with the remarks, while 44% disagree.
- Views of Clinton's health have rebounded somewhat. Two weeks ago, 52% said she was healthy enough to serve four years as president effectively. Last week that fell to 39%, but the number is back up to 45%.
- Trump retains an advantage on this question. 67% say his physical condition is good enough, up from 63% last week.
- 77% of Americans now say it is "true" that Obama was born in the US, up from 71% last week.
- Among Trump voters, the number who say it is true Obama was born in the US rose from 49% to 58%.
- Only 32% think Donald Trump believes Obama was born in the US; 42% think Trump believes Obama was born somewhere else and 26% are unsure. Last week, only 13% said they thought Trump believed Obama was born in the US and 59% said outside the US.
Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF
Topline summary: PDF
National Tracking Report: PDF