The party's Oooooo-ver

The Tea Party is moving from a popular new force in American politics to a potential problem for the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee. In Economist/YouGov polls conducted between June 2010 and today, support for the Tea Party remains steady, but opposition is growing among both Democrats and Republicans.

In the first half of 2011, 31% support the Tea Party and 34% are opposed. Today, 30% support the Tea Party, 34% are opposed.

Opinion among Republicans is unchanged over time, a steady 67%-68% in support of the Tea Party and just 6%-7% opposed, among Republicans aware of it.

Among Democrats aware of the Tea Party, opposition grew from barely half (52%) in the summer of 2010 to 60% in the first six months of 2011 and 61% today.

Among Independents aware of the Tea Party, last year 41% supported the Tea Party and 29% opposed. By the first half of 2011, 35% of Independents supported and 35% opposed the Tea Party. Today, 34% of Independents aware of the Tea Party support and 37% oppose the Tea Party.

If current trends continue, with a steady two-in-three Republicans supporting the Tea Party, the Presidential nominee will certainly want to be associated with the Tea Party. How that will play in the general election, however, is a moving target and moving in the wrong direction for the Tea Party and Republicans. Critically, Independents aware of the Tea Party were more supportive than opposed last year, now are slightly more likely to be opposed than supportive, and opposition to the Tea Party is growing among Independents. A Republican nominee who has strong Tea Party support at the Republican convention next summer may find that an albatross by November 2012.



Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here

Photo source: Press Association