October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a solid, 21-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Maryland, 58% Obama to 37% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 498 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Maryland (Oct 4-11):

Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, with 91% of Democrats intending to vote Obama and 88% of Republicans intending to vote for Romney.

Independents favor Romney, 49%-39%.

Women strongly favor Obama 64%-32%, while among men Obama is more narrowly ahead (52%-42%).

Obama enjoys huge leads over Romney in the City of Baltimore (81%-18%) and the DC Suburbs (76%-22%). He also enjoys a solid lead over Romney in the Baltimore Suburbs (50%-40%).

Romney is well ahead in the mostly rural rest of the state (56%-39%).

The oldest voters age 65+ slightly favor Romney (50%-48%), while young voters overwhelmingly favor Obama (72%-20%).

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





In the state’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin seems a safe bet for reelection, as he is far ahead of Republican challenger Dan Bongino, 54%-30%.

Likely voters in Maryland are mostly supporting Democratic congressional candidates, with 56% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 30% intending to vote for the Republican candidate.

The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 73.6%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 498 likely voters.

Margin of error ± 5.2% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).