Four years ago, President Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency. This year, running for re-election, he is locked in a tight race against Republican Mitt Romney. Hypothetically, what if Clinton were the Democratic nominee instead of Obama?
The latest YouGov Poll suggests that in that hypothetical Clinton-Romney matchup, the former Senator and current Secretary of State might run better than the current incumbent. Among likely voters, the President and Romney are currently nearly even – 48% of likely voters favoring Barack Obama, 47% Romney.
But among the same likely voters, Secretary Clinton leads the former Massachusetts Governor by six points in a hypothetical race.
Of course, the Secretary of State has not had the job of President for the past four years. And her tenure as Secretary of State has made her appear – at least to some – as above politics. In many previous Economist/YouGov Polls, Clinton’s favorable ratings have been high, and high for a Democrat even among Republicans.
Clinton’s advantage comes from those critical voters in the middle: she would run nearly even with Romney among independents, and get 11% of GOP voters. In contrast, the President trails Romney by five with independents, and just 5% of Republicans say they will vote for him. Clinton would do slightly better than the President does with both men and women. And she does marginally better with white voters, particularly low-income white voters. Just 40% of them say they will vote for the President, who trails Romney by eleven points among whites with incomes below $40,000 a year; Clinton would lead Romney with this group, 50% to 44%.
Vote Preference: Obama vs. Romney and Clinton vs. Romney
| Obama vs. Romney | Clinton vs. Romney | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama | Romney | Clinton | Romney |
Democrats | 96% | 3% | 96% | 4% |
Republicans | 5% | 96% | 11% | 85% |
Independents | 42% | 47% | 44% | 45% |
Whites | 37% | 58% | 40% | 54% |
Blacks | 91% | 5% | 89% | 10% |
Hispanics | 62% | 37% | 64% | 32% |
Whites, income <$40K | 40% | 51% | 50% | 44% |
Whites, income $40K-$100K | 31% | 68% | 29% | 68% |
Whites, income >$100K | 45% | 47% | 51% | 44% |
In fact, 8% of current Romney voters say they would switch their vote if Clinton were the Democratic nominee.
Clinton’s apparent advantage in vote choice, however, is not matched by any expectation that she would outperform the President on critical issues – with one exception. That’s the policy area she’s been focused on for the last four years. By a margin of 33% to 20%, Americans think that Clinton would do a better job than the President on foreign policy. But on domestic issues like health care, the budget deficit and the economy, the public sees little difference, or gives a slight edge to the President.
Who would do a better job of handling these issues?
| Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | About the same | Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The economy | 25% | 21% | 39% | 15% |
Health care | 28% | 21% | 38% | 14% |
The budget deficit | 23% | 21% | 40% | 17% |
Foreign policy | 20% | 33% | 35% | 12% |
