Americans agree that the country's politics have moved in a single consistent direction over the past decade: away from their own politics.
YouGov recently surveyed 33,000 Americans about the political changes they see — in the U.S., in their states, and in themselves. Overall, 30% of U.S. adults say the U.S.'s politics have moved to the left in the last 10 years, while 26% say they have moved to the right. 22% say U.S. politics have stayed the same and 22% aren't sure.
While Americans are divided on which way politics has moved, liberals and conservatives have starkly different views on the matter. 44% of self-identified liberals say the U.S. has moved to the right, compared to 15% of conservatives. Meanwhile 55% of conservatives say the U.S. has moved to the left, while 15% say it's moved to the right.
This same polarization is there in people's views of their own political changes. While Americans are most likely to say their political views have stayed the same, liberals are more likely to say they've become more liberal and conservatives are more likely to say they've become more conservative. That's especially true for the very liberal and very conservative, perhaps because it might be difficult to "move right" and still be "very liberal" or to "move left" and still be "very conservative.".
Among self-described "moderates," 13% say they've moved to the left over the past 10 years, while 16% say they've moved to the right, and 57% say their politics have stayed the same.
But among the "very liberal," 53% say they've moved to the left over the past 10 years, compared to 6% who've moved right and 35% who've stayed the same. And among the "very conservative," only 10% say they've moved left, while 43% say they've moved further right and 42% have stayed the same.
Views on the U.S.'s changing politics appear to be more closely tied to Americans' current political ideologies than to how those ideologies have changed. Liberals are much more likely to say the country has moved to the right (and not the left), regardless of whether they say their own politics have moved to the right, to the left, or stayed the same.
Similarly, conservatives are most likely to have equivalent views about the country's changing direction — that it moved away from them, to the left — whatever their own personal change in politics.
Residents of blue states see them moving left; residents of red states see them moving right
YouGov also asked Americans about how they think politics in their own states have changed. Overall Americans are fairly divided: 24% say their states have moved to the left and 22% say they have moved to the right.
People who live in states that Donald Trump, the Republican, won in 2020 are more likely to say their states had moved to the right, while residents of states won by Joe Biden, the Democrat, are more likely to say their states had moved left.
In states decided by less than 3 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election's two-party vote margin — the margin in the candidates' shares of all votes cast for the Democrat or the Republican — 30% say their states have moved left, 19% say they've moved right, and 30% say their state's politics have stayed the same.
Among the states whose residents were most likely to say there has been a rightward move are Iowa, Montana, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Iowa, for example, voted for Democrat Barack Obama by nearly 6 percentage points in 2012, then for Trump by more than 8 percentage points in 2020.
The states whose residents were most likely to say they had moved left: Colorado, Arizona, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Arizona, for example, voted narrowly for Biden in 2020, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state in more than 20 years.
There's no single objective way to quantify how a state's politics have changed. Votes for U.S. president, Congress, governor, state legislature, and more could all impact people's perceptions. So could the ultimate winner of a given race, regardless of how close the vote was. (And politics can also change outside of election results.)
YouGov compared the net share of Americans saying their state has moved left against the change in the Democratic share of combined votes for president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor between the 2012 and 2022 election cycles. American opinion on changes to their state's politics generally corresponds to election results: States that saw bigger increases in Democratic vote share also saw larger shares saying their state had moved left, and vice versa.
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Methodology: This Daily Questions survey was conducted online on November 3 - 6, 2023 among 33,191 U.S. adults. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. census region, and political party.
See results of this poll:
- In the past 10 years, would you say that the politics of the U.S. as a whole have…?
- In the past 10 years, would you say that the politics of your state have…?
- In the past 10 years, would you say that your own political views have…?
Image: Getty (filo)
