This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the 2024 election, Donald Trump's vice presidential pick, his hush-money trial, immigration, the economy, abortion, contraception, and COVID.
The 2024 election
- The presidential election remains nearly as close as it did before former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial: 42% of registered voters say they plan to vote for Trump, while 40% prefer President Joe Biden
- Only 3% plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and other candidates get even less support
- 9% of registered voters say they are unsure who they'll vote for, including 12% of women and 13% of Black registered voters
- Black and Hispanic registered voters are more likely than white registered voters to favor Kennedy (7% and 6% vs. 2%)
- Half of Biden’s supporters — including two-thirds of supporters under 30 — say they are mostly voting against Trump, more than say they are voting for Biden
- Only one-third of Black Biden supporters say they mostly are voting against Trump while two-thirds are voting more for Biden
- Two-thirds of Trump supporters say they mostly are voting for Trump, more than say they are mostly voting against Biden
- Even among Biden supporters, many take issue with aspects of his job performance and his abilities: 11% somewhat or strongly disapprove of how he is handling his job, 21% disapprove of his handling of inflation and prices, and 27% disapprove of his handling of immigration
- 12% of Biden supporters say his health and age would severely limit his ability to do his job if he were to win in November; just 1% of Trump supporters say the same about his health and age
Trump’s vice presidential pick
- There is no consensus among Republicans and Independents who lean Republican or don't lean to either party on whom Trump should choose as his running mate
- Florida Governor Ron Desantis, another primary opponent of Trump’s, has the most net support among Republicans and Independents who lean Republican or don't lean to either party
The Trump hush-money trial
- 51% of Americans, including 89% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans, strongly or somewhat approve of the guilty verdict in Trump’s hush-money trial — little change from 50% according to the prior week's poll
- Consistent with approval of the verdict, 49% say, no, the trial wasn't rigged against Trump; 38% think it was rigged
- 88% who approve of the verdict say the trial wasn't rigged; 87% who disapprove of the verdict say it was
Immigration
- For Trump supporters, immigration is the top issue: 34% cite it as their most important issue, while 24% name inflation and prices
- Immigration is the top issue for only 2% of Biden supporters, well behind climate change and the environment, abortion, inflation and many others
- 56% of Americans support closing the U.S.-Mexico border if migrants exceed more than 2,500 per day — which is what a new Biden executive order does, though respondents were not told this is a Biden order
- There is some support for compromise on border issues, but overall the nation is divided on whether Biden and Trump should cooperate when dealing with the border: 36% say they should and 33% say they shouldn't
- 45% of Biden supporters and 35% of Trump supporters favor cooperation on the issue
The economy
- 29% of Americans think the number of jobs in the country is decreasing
- 39% think the U.S. economy is shrinking
- 54% think the economy overall is getting worse
- These results are driven as much by politics as by personal economic reality — 85% of Trump supporters believe the economy is getting worse and 71% say their family’s economic situation is worse than a year ago
- These responses often are related to income, and Trump support is greater in lower-income brackets: Registered voters with annual family income of $100,000 or less are more likely to support Trump, while those with family income above $100,000 are more likely to support Biden
- However, 83% of Biden voters and 76% of Trump supporters say they definitely or probably have enough money to pay their bills this month, and there is little difference by candidate preference among those currently employed in their rate of worrying that they could lose their job
Abortion and contraception
- By 56% to 26%, Americans prefer the federal government’s law — that abortions must be provided in emergency situations — to some state laws that allow abortions only when a woman's life is threatened
- 52% of men and 59% of women support the federal government's law, as do 77% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans.
- By 61% to 18%, Americans are more likely to strongly or somewhat support than to oppose Congress passing a law to legalize contraception nationwide
- 79% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans, 57% of men, and 64% of women would support such a law
COVID-19
- Only 17% of Americans say they have received a booster against COVID-19 in the last six months
- Democrats are likelier than Republicans to have received any vaccines against COVID, and to have received a booster in the last six months
- 35% of Americans say the U.S. needs to do more to prepare for future pandemics
- Only 8% say the U.S. should do less
—Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the June 9 - 11, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,595 U.S. adult citizens from June 9 - 11, 2024. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty
