The first debate, the draft, and summer travel: the June 23 - 25, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll

David MontgomerySenior data journalist
June 26, 2024, 8:12 PM GMT+0

This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, the first Biden-Trump debate, Kamala Harris, women and the draft, Supreme Court approval, a ruling on guns and domestic abusers, summer heat and travel, and cricket.

The 2024 election

  • President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump once again are tied — 42% of registered voters plan to vote for each candidate
  • Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. remains at 4%
  • 8% of registered voters are undecided; 1% say they would not vote
  • Nearly all Biden supporters (95%) and Trump supporters (93%) now say their minds are made up
  • Supporters of other candidates — Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West — are more likely to say they could change their minds
  • Both major candidates are regarded unfavorably by similarly large shares of Americans, and Democrats see Biden about the same way Republicans see Trump
  • Trump is better liked than Biden among Americans who are not registered to vote
  • 27% of Americans who are not registered have a very or somewhat favorable view of Biden and 64% an unfavorable one
  • In this group, 33% have a favorable view of Trump and 57% an unfavorable one

The first presidential debate

  • Two-thirds of registered voters say they probably or definitely will watch Thursday’s presidential debate
  • Biden supporters and Trump supporters are equally like to say they will watch the debate
  • Only 10% of registered voters think it is even somewhat likely that the debate will change their mind about whom to support
  • More Americans expect a Trump debate win than a Biden victory — by a bigger margin than before their first debate in the 2020 election
  • Fewer Biden supporters expect their candidate to win than the share of Trump supporters who expect a Trump win

Kamala Harris

  • American adults are doubtful about Vice President Kamala Harris’ qualifications to serve as president should that become necessary
  • Large majorities of Biden supporters say Harris is qualified for her current job as well as to be president
  • Women are more likely than men to say Harris is qualified
  • The share of Americans who approve of Harris' handling of the vice presidency has dropped 9 percentage points since May 2023
    • 32% strongly or somewhat approve of how Harris is handling her job as vice president
    • On the April 29 - May 2, 2023 poll, 41% approved of Harris' job performance
    • The share of Americans approving of Biden’s job performance has dropped by a similar amount in the same period
  • More Americans say Harris is a very or somewhat strong leader than say the same about Biden, but fewer than say it about Trump
  • Among Biden supporters, 35% like Harris a lot and 35% like her somewhat
  • 53% of Biden supporters like Biden a lot and 33% like him somewhat

Should women register for Selective Service?

  • Most men say women should be required to register with Selective Service when they turn 18, as men are
  • Women are more likely to say no to the idea than to say yes
  • Veterans — most of whom are men — and people now in the military are especially likely to say women should have to register
  • Adults under 30 are less supportive of requiring women to register for the draft than are older Americans

The Supreme Court

  • Opinion of the Supreme Court's handling of its job is more negative than positive: 36% strongly or somewhat approve and 48% disapprove
  • 25% of Democrats approve of the Supreme Court's job performance and 67% disapprove; 62% of Republicans approve and 27% disapprove
  • One recent Supreme Court decision is supported by majorities of Democrats and Republicans: keeping guns away from people with a restraining order because of domestic abuse
  • 88% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans support banning gun ownership by people with a restraining order because of domestic abuse
  • 83% of Americans regard domestic abuse as a very or somewhat serious problem
  • 87% of Democrats, 82% of Republicans, consider domestic abuse

Hot American summer

  • 64% of Americans expect summer in their area to be hotter than usual, including 33% who expect it to be much hotter
  • Belief that summer will be hotter than usual ranges between 58% of Westerners and 67% of Southerners
  • 76% of Democrats, 80% of liberals, 50% of Republicans, and 45% of conservatives expect a hotter summer
  • Climate change is a much bigger concern for Democrats than for Republicans
    • 16% of Democrats name climate change and the environment as their most important issue, tied for most with health care
    • Only 1% of Republicans say climate change is their most important issue; No. 1 for them is immigration, followed closely by inflation/prices
  • 38% of Americans expect to travel this summer, another 18% aren’t sure
  • 63% of Americans with family income of at least $100,000 expect to travel this summer, compared to 23% of those whose family income is less than $50,000
  • Driving is the most popular form of summer travel, among Americans overall as well as both Democrats and Republicans
  • Democrats are more likely than Republicans to plan to travel by plane or train; Republicans are more likely to say they will take a cruise ship
  • 24% of Democrats and 39% of Republicans say gas prices' effect on travel plans will be "a lot"
  • 37% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans say family availability for a trip will matter a lot for summer travel

Cricket, anyone?

  • Despite the American national men's cricket team’s upset win over Pakistan in the T20 Cricket World Cup earlier this month, Americans have had little exposure to the sport: 14% say they have watched cricket and another 9% are interested in doing so
  • Only 2% watch cricket often
  • 72% of Americans are not interested in watching cricket
  • 79% have no opinion about how the U.S. team ranks globally the rest of the world, 79% have no opinion
  • 6% say the U.S. is a better-than-average international team and 5% say it is worse than average

— Carl Bialik contributed to this article

See the toplines and crosstabs for the June 23 - 25, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,599 U.S. adult citizens from June 23 - 25, 2024. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.

Image: Getty