This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers a presidential election update, age and the campaign, Kamala Harris, the conventions, inflation, and NATO.
The 2024 Election
- Donald Trump holds a 2-percentage-point lead over President Joe Biden; it was 3 points last week
- 97% of respondents began the survey after Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump
- The presidential election is more of a referendum on Trump than on Biden: The share of Biden supporters saying their vote will be mainly against Trump has jumped 12 points since the question was last asked three weeks before — and before the debate — while Trump supporters who say their vote will be for Trump rose 13 points
- These figures are about what they were at this stage of the 2020 campaign: 61% of Biden supporters mostly voting against Trump now, 58% then; 80% of Trump supporters now are mostly voting for Trump now, 78% then
- A poll just before the 2020 election found that 55% of Biden supporters were mostly voting against Trump while 81% of Trump supporters were mostly voting for Trump — both similar to today's equivalent figures
- Trump maintains his lead in enthusiasm: 72% of Trump supporters are very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting this fall, compared with 52% of Biden supporters
- One-third of Biden supporters now are not too enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic about voting, more than twice the share of Trump voters who say that about their vote (32% vs. 13%)
- More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say they won’t change their choice: 92% of Biden supporters and 93% of Trump supporters
- By an ever increasing margin, Trump is viewed by more Americans than Biden as the likely winner: 49% vs. 26% this week, compared to a 19-point margin in last week's poll and 9 points two weeks before
- While registered voters' vote intention changed little from last week's poll, Trump's net favorability increased slightly: -9 — this week 43% view favorably, 53% unfavorably; last week 41% and 56%
- Among Independents, Trump's net favorability increased to -12 from -24 in last week's poll
- Trump is doing better than Biden both among committed members of their respective parties (98% of self-described strong Republicans back Biden while 93% of strong Democrats back Trump) and among Independents who lean toward one of the parties (79% of Independents who lean Republican back Trump, while 67% of Independents who lean Democratic back Biden)
- Trump leads by 36% to 17% among Independents who lean toward neither party
- Soon after Biden's presidency began, Americans were split: 32% expected his presidency to go down as outstanding or above average, and the same share (32%) expected a legacy that would be poor or below average, according to the February 6 - 9, 2021 poll
- Now only 22% say outstanding or above average, and 51% say poor or below average
- His legacy has declined among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans
- 58% of Democrats say the media is being harder on Joe Biden than on other candidates while 25% say they've been treating him the same as other candidates; few Republicans agree with either assessment and 81% say the media is being easier on Biden
- 86% of Republicans say the media is being harder on Donald Trump than on other candidates and 4% say they're treating him about the same
- 10% of Democrats say the media is harder on Trump than others and 22% say they treat him about the same, while 54% say they're easier on him
Age and the Biden campaign
- 51% of Americans think Joe Biden definitely or probably should step aside in the 2024 election and allow another Democrat to run; 30% say he definitely or probably should not
- Democrats are closely divided: 44% say he should step aside and 41% say he shouldn't
- Independents and Republicans are more likely to say Biden should leave the race
- 69% of the Democrats who both want Biden to step aside and also intend to vote for him see their vote as one mostly against Trump (rather than primarily for Biden), compared to 44% among Democrats planning to vote for Biden who don't want him to step aside
- 88% of the Americans who want Biden to step aside cite concerns about his age, health, or cognitive function
- 33% of Americans also cite concerns about Biden's chances of winning the election, including 65% of Democratic Biden supporters who prefer he leave the race
- 73% of the Americans who want Biden to step aside say concerns about his age, health, or cognitive function are the biggest reason they want him to step aside, including 60% of Democratic Biden supporters who prefer he leave the race
- However, two-thirds of Americans who think Biden should step aside say that outcome is not very or not at all likely; only 25% say it is very or somewhat likely
Harris and Vance
- 79% of Democrats would approve of Kamala Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee if Biden steps aside
- But there's no consensus among Democrats that Harris would be a better nominee than Biden: 28% say Harris would be more likely than Biden to beat Trump while 24% say she'd be less likely to win and 32% they'd have about equal chances against Trump
- Americans are slightly less likely to say they'd support Harris over Trump than they are to support Biden over Trump: Trump leads Biden by 2 points and Harris by 5
- Among Democrats, Biden leads Trump by 87 points while Harris leads by 81 points
- Harris's net favorability among Americans is better than Biden's but worse than Trump's and that of Trump's pick for running mate, J.D. Vance: -9 for both Trump and Vance, -15 for Harris, -20 for Biden
- Vance's net favorability is +29 among Republicans, -46 among Democrats, and -8 among Independents
- Among registered voters who are not sure who they will vote for or say they will not vote, Trump's net favorability is -64 while Vance's is -8
The conventions
- More than half of American adults say they won’t watch each of the two party conventions: 54% for the Democratic convention and 53% for the Republican convention
- Republicans are more interested in their party's convention, which is happening now, than Democrats are in theirs, happening next month: 21% of Republicans say they won’t watch any of the Republican convention, compared to 35% of Democrats with the Democratic convention
- Most Republicans see their party as very or somewhat united, while about one-third of Democrats think theirs is (63% vs. 36%)
- 29% of Republicans say their party is very or somewhat divided; 56% of Democrats say theirs is
Managing inflation
- Inflation remains the country’s No. 1 issue, and despite the recent lowered levels of inflation, many Americans still worry about what happens next
- 43% say that their family’s financial situation has become worse since last year; only 13% say it is better
- As many say next year they and their household will be worse for them as say they will be better off (22% vs. 22%)
- Economic concerns are more pervasive among Trump supporters than among Biden supporters: Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to expect inflation to be higher in six months (47% vs. 18%)
- Nonetheless more Americans overall — and among Democrats, Republicans, and those at each family income level — say they definitely or probably have enough money to pay their bills this month than say they won't
NATO
- After the recent NATO summit, most Americans — including pluralities of Republicans and Trump supporters — want to remain in NATO
- Only 14% overall would withdraw, including 27% of Republicans and 32% of Trump supporters
- Older Americans are far more likely than younger adults to want to remain in NATO
- Nearly half (46%) of adults under 30 have no opinion on withdrawal from the alliance
- There has been little change since 2021
- Just 17% say they have heard a lot about the NATO summit
- Americans are more negative than positive about Biden's performance at the summit: 29% strongly or somewhat approve while 35% disapprove
- Americans are divided on Biden’s overall handling of NATO: 36% approve and 33% disapprove
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the July 13 - 16, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,582 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Joe Raedle / Staff)
