Most Americans approve of President Joe Biden's decision to end his presidential campaign, according to a snap YouGov poll conducted hours after Biden's announcement Sunday. 71% of Americans either strongly or somewhat approve of Biden's withdrawal, including 70% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 76% of Republicans. Only 17% of Americans disapprove.
Kamala Harris
There's less consensus over who should be the new Democratic presidential candidate, but 60% of Democrats join Biden in supporting Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee, while only 21% of Democrats would support someone else. 19% are unsure.
Democrats were even more enthusiastic about Biden's decision to endorse Harris: 82% strongly or somewhat supported Biden's endorsement, while 9% opposed it.
The latest Economist / YouGov Poll, conducted July 13 - 16, 2024, found Trump leading Harris 44% to 39%. That was slightly larger than Trump's lead against Biden of 43% to 41%.
Registered voters across the political spectrum give Harris a better chance at beating Trump than they recently gave Biden. A snap poll on July 21 found that 34% of registered voters say they think Harris would win in an election against Trump, while 49% think Trump would win. That's not especially optimistic, but it's more voters than thought Biden would win according to the July 13 - 16 Economist / YouGov Poll. Only 29% of registered voters there thought Biden would beat Trump.
Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all are more likely to say Harris would win than said so about Biden.
Biden's future
Though most Americans approve of Biden's decision to leave the presidential race, a majority (56%) say Biden should complete his term as president, while 30% say he should resign.
Democrats overwhelmingly (81% vs. 11%) want Biden to finish his term, and Independents are more likely than not (49% vs. 32%) to say so. More Republicans say Biden should resign (49%) than that he should complete his term (37%).
What Americans said before Biden withdrew
Before Biden announced his withdrawal Sunday, Democrats had been split about whether he should stay in the race. The July 13 - 16 Economist / YouGov Poll found that 44% of Democrats wanted Biden to withdraw. A subsequent YouGov poll, conducted July 17 - 20, found that support rising to 53%, with 36% opposed.
But only a small percentage of Americans — and a smaller share of Democrats — thought Biden would leave the race. Just 28% of U.S. adult citizens and 20% of Democrats thought it was very or somewhat likely that Biden would leave, while 57% of Americans and 69% of Democrats thought it wasn't likely.
When YouGov asked U.S. adults on July 19 (two days before Biden's withdrawal) to imagine a scenario where Biden left the race, 66% of Americans thought they would approve of a Biden withdrawal. The increase to 71% approving of Biden's actual announcement on July 21 was driven by an increase in support among Democrats and Independents; Republican approval remained unchanged.
In the poll conducted July 17 - 20, before Biden's withdrawal, the most common reason Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents cited for wanting Biden to withdraw was his age and health. 88% of those who wanted Biden to leave said that was a reason. 65% were concerned about Biden's ability to beat Trump, and 21% said they disagreed with Biden on policy issues.
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
Update, July 21, 2024 11:55 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to add more charts and text reflecting additional YouGov polling completed Sunday evening.
See the results for these surveys:
Daily Questions, July 21, 2024:
- President Joe Biden announced he is ending his bid for reelection. Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic nominee for president?
- Who should Democrats nominate as their new candidate for president?
- What impact do you think Joe Biden's decision to step aside as the Democratic nominee will have on the 2024 presidential election?
- Do you support or oppose Joe Biden endorsing Kamala Harris as the new Democratic nominee for president following his decision to step aside?
- Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the 2024 presidential election if these were the candidates?
- Do you think Joe Biden should complete his term as president or resign?
Methodology:
The July 17 - 20, 2024 YouGov poll was conducted online among 1,140 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
The two sets of Daily Questions survey both were conducted online on July 21, 2024 —the first among 2,048 U.S. adults and the second among 2,665 U.S. adults. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. census region, and political party. The margin of error for the overall sample for the first survey is approximately 3%, and for the second survey is approximately 2.5%.
Image: Getty
