This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, Kennedy's withdrawal, the Democratic convention, policy differences, labor, and Labor Day.
The 2024 election
The state of the race
- Democratic nominee Kamala Harris continues to hold a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in the presidential election
- Harris is about where she was before the Democratic convention — a lead of 2 percentage points among registered voters now and 3 points just before the conventions — suggesting no immediate post-convention bounce
- Among registered voters, there continues to be a wide gender gap: Harris has an 11-point lead among women, while Trump has an 8-point lead with men
- Trump holds a small lead among Independents: 42% to 37%
- 95% of Democrats favor Harris; 91% of Republicans support Trump
- More registered voters expect Harris to win than say Trump will (40% vs. 34%)
- A greater share of Harris supporters (76%) than Trump supporters (70%) think their preferred candidate will win
- Americans who aren't registered voters — who generally are less engaged with politics — have a different view of the election: Only 26% of them expect Harris will win, while 45% think Trump will
- Overall, 36% of U.S. adult citizens expect Harris to win, and 37% expect Trump will
- Democrats continue to be more enthusiastic about voting for president than Republicans are: 70% of Democrats are very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting, compared to 57% of Republicans
- Republicans had consistently been more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats were before President Joe Biden withdrew from the election
- 63% of Harris supporters say their vote is more for Harris than against Trump, though that is lower than the 72% of Trump supporters who say they are voting mostly for Trump
- Biden supporters were more likely to say their vote would be against Trump than for Biden
- Democrats lead Republicans by 2 points — 46% to 44% — in the national vote for the House of Representatives
- House Democratic candidates lead by 10 points among women, while trailing by 6 points among men
Kennedy's withdrawal
- The day before this week’s poll began collecting responses, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump — an alignment consistent with the longstanding partisan divide in views of Kennedy: Republicans have in recent months consistently held a more positive view of him than Democrats have
- Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump has widened that partisan gap on favorability: 68% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats view Kennedy very or somewhat favorably, while last week those figures were 51% and 25%
- Among all registered voters, 42% view Kennedy favorably while 48% view him unfavorably
The Democratic convention
- After last week’s convention, 60% of registered voters say the Democratic Party is a very or somewhat united party
- 46% say the Republican Party is united
- Similar shares of registered voters say they watched the Democratic and Republican conventions or read or watched news stories about them
- Among the registered voters who watched the Democratic convention or read or watched news stories about it...
- 60% say they saw Harris’ acceptance speech – the only speech seen by a majority of this group
- The speeches of Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Biden, and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz were the next most widely watched
- Registered voters are divided on whether Walz is qualified to be president, if that becomes necessary: 38% say he is and 39% say he isn't
- 43% of registered voters say Walz helps Harris' candidacy; 15% say he is hurting it
- 48% of registered voters call Walz a very or somewhat good choice; 35% say he is a bad choice
Policy differences
- Two Harris or Trump policy proposals included in the poll have majority support from supporters of both candidates: eliminating taxes on tips — which both have proposed — and Harris' proposal to cap out-of-pocket expenses on drugs to $2,000 a year
- Besides the proposals with bipartisan majority support, majorities of all registered voters strongly or somewhat support the following Harris proposals: providing a $6,000 child tax credit for families with children younger than a year, restoring abortion rights nationwide, capping increases in food and grocery prices, and giving tax credits to developers building homes for first-time homeowners
- A majority also supports the Trump proposal to arrest and deport thousands of illegal immigrants
- 73% of registered voters have a very or somewhat clear idea of the policies Trump would enact if elected, while 57% say the same about Trump’s policies
Labor Day and labor
- Americans’ opinion of labor unions has improved in the last year: The share with favorable opinions has risen by 4 points, while the share with unfavorable opinions has declined by 7 points
- Only 21% of Americans say labor unions are stronger today than they were 30 years ago; 27% say unions are less powerful
- 24% expect labor unions' influence to increase in the future while 15% expect it to decrease
- For many Americans, Labor Day is for relaxation (43%) and family get-togethers (28%)
- 26% say Labor Day marks the end of summer, though 39% say summer stays with us until September 21
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the August 25 - 27, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,555 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Anna Moneymaker / Staff)
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