This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers Kamala Harris' small but steady lead, perceptions of Harris and Donald Trump on the military and other matters, the candidates on the issues, next week's debate, and how voters will cast their ballots.
The latest on Harris vs. Trump
- Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a small lead — within the poll’s margin of error — over former President Donald Trump: 47% to 45% among registered voters
- Harris has held a small lead over Trump in each of the last few weeks' polls
- Gender differences on Harris vs. Trump are smaller this week than in recent weeks: Trump leads with men by 1 percentage point, while Harris leads among women by 4 points
- Harris leads by 56% to 34% among adults under 45 — her widest lead with the group since she became the expected Democratic nominee
- Trump leads Harris by 17 points among registered voters 65 and older, matching Harris’ lead with those between ages 30 and 44
- Trump leads among Independents by 46% to 37%
- Harris supporters are more attentive to the campaign than Trump voters: 82% of Harris voters are currently paying a lot of attention, compared with 63% of Trump voters
- 67% of Harris supporters and 68% of Trump supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president
- 59% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president — a near-tie after several weeks of a Democratic edge in enthusiasm
- By 50% to 33%, registered voters are more likely to expect Harris to win the popular vote than to expect Trump to win it
- As many registered voters expect Trump to win the Electoral College as think Harris will (36% vs. 36%)
The candidates and the military
- Trump leads Harris by 59% to 36% among registered voters who are veterans or currently in the military; Republicans outnumber Democrats in this group by 41% to 28%
- Active military and veterans are more likely to say Trump cares a lot about veterans and current service members than to say Harris does (51% vs. 32%); among all Americans there is little difference (32% for Trump vs. 30% for Harris)
- When it comes to caring about “people like you,” the largest difference in perception of the two candidates among all registered voters is the share thinking each cares “not at all”: 44% say that about Trump, 36% about Harris
- Trump holds small leads over Harris among registered voters on two other military-related questions: slightly more are very or somewhat confident in his ability to be an effective commander-in-chief and to handle an international crisis
Perceptions of the candidates
- The shares of registered voters who perceive Harris and Trump as a very or somewhat strong leader are similar: 51% say that about Harris, and 53% of Trump
- More registered voters say Harris is very intelligent (43%) than say that about Trump (38%)
- More registered voters want to see and hear more from Harris in the news than to see and hear more from Trump (40% vs. 24%); fewer want to see less of Harris than of Trump (31% vs. 47%)
Attack and explanation
- By 51% to 39%, registered voters are more likely to believe Harris spends more time explaining what she would do as president than attacking her opponent, than the reverse
- The equivalent figures for Trump are 33% who say he mostly explains and 59% who say he mostly attacks
The issues
- The dominant issue this year is the economy: Both Harris supporters (17%) and Trump supporters (31%) are most likely to say inflation and prices is their most important issue
- But different issues rank after inflation as the most important among Harris supporters and Trump supporters: Among Harris supporters, there's a three-way tie between health care, abortion, and climate change (13% each); among Trump supporters, immigration (26%) and jobs and the economy (11%) follow inflation in priority
The next debate
- 70% of registered voters say there definitely or probably will be a debate, as scheduled, on September 10 between Harris and Trump
- About three-quarters of each candidate’s supporters say they will definitely or probably watch it
- Just 29% of each candidate's current supporters say debates will be very or somewhat important in determining their vote
- On a different question, 96% of Harris supporters and 95% of Trump supporters say their minds are made up on their vote intent and will not change
- Vast majorities of supporters of each candidate think their candidate will win the debate: 90% of Harris supporters say she will win, while 88% of Trump voters say he will
- Most people who heard at least something about the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden say Trump won
Plans for casting ballots
- Registered voters are closely divided not just on presidential choice, but also on how they cast ballots: Nationally, 48% say they will vote in person on Election Day while 48% say they will vote earlier — either in person, by mail, or by absentee ballot
- As in 2020, Trump leads among registered voters planning to vote on Election Day while Harris leads among those planning to vote beforehand
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the September 1 - 3, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,544 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Spencer Platt / Staff)
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