This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the presidential election, the candidates' foreign policy credentials, conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, the interest-rate cut, and Sean "Diddy" Combs.
The election
Harris vs. Trump
- Vice President Kamala Harris continues to maintain a small edge over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, who in this week's poll favor her by 47% to 44%
- Likely voters — who are being classified in the poll as registered voters who either say they will definitely vote or who say they will probably vote and who voted in 2022 or 2020 — also give Harris a 3-percentage-point lead, by 49% to 46%
- Among registered voters: women, adults under 45, and Black and Hispanic Americans are more likely to support Harris; men, white Americans, and those 45 or older are more likely to support Trump
- Harris leads by 12 points among college graduates, while registered voters without a college degree support Trump narrowly; there is little difference in candidate support by registered voters' family income
- Both Democrats and Republicans are nearly equally enthusiastic about voting this fall
- More than 90% of Harris' and Trump's supporters say their minds won’t change: 97% of Trump supporters say they won’t change their minds, while 93% of Harris supporters say their minds are made up
- Majorities of both candidates’ supporters say they are voting for their preferred candidate rather than against the other major party's — 59% of Harris' supporters and 74% of Trump’s
- Independent voters are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to describe their vote as a vote against another candidate, as opposed to a vote for the one they plan to vote for
Foreign policy and the military
- Only 1% of Americans cite foreign policy as the issue most important to them
- Inflation and prices, and immigration, are the most important issues for Republicans
- Democrats care most about inflation, climate change and the environment, and health care
- Harris and Trump are seen as very or somewhat strong leaders by similar shares of registered voters: 50% for Harris and 54% for Trump
- Harris is more likely than Trump to be viewed as having the temperament to be president (50% vs. 41% among registered voters)
- Half of registered voters are uneasy about each nominee’s ability to handle an international crisis
- Less than half of registered voters are very or somewhat confident in each candidate’s ability to be an effective commander-in-chief
- There are also fairly similar evaluations of how much Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of U.S. veterans and service members
- Veterans and people now in the military generally favor Trump over Harris: Most see Trump as able to be an effective commander-in-chief while most don’t think Harris can be, and 53% believe Trump cares about the needs and problems of veterans and service members while 26% say Harris does
- Veterans and active military members who are registered voters support Trump by 57% to 35%
Russia-Ukraine war
- Majorities of Harris supporters and Trump supporters say their sympathies lie more with Ukraine than with Russia in the war
- However, one-third of Trump supporters say they have sympathy for neither Russia nor Ukraine in the conflict
- 50% of Americans think the Russia-Ukraine war is very or somewhat likely to lead to a wider war in Europe — or already has
- By 51% to 25%, Americans are more likely to strongly or somewhat approve than disapprove of Ukraine using weapons from the U.S. military to carry out attacks in Russia; Harris supporters approve by 71% to 12% while Trump supporters are closely divided
45% of Democrats favor increasing military aid to Ukraine, compared to 12% of Republicans
Conflict in the Middle East
- Nearly two-thirds of Americans expect that the fighting in Israel and Gaza is very or somewhat likely to lead to a wider war — or has already done so
- Americans are twice as likely to want to decrease U.S. military aid to Israel as to increase it
- By 54% to 6%, Harris supporters would decrease U.S. military aid to Israel; 20% of Trump supporters would decrease military aid and 39% would increase it
- Americans are divided on the recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon, using explosives in pagers and walkie-talkies: 33% approve and 37% disapprove; 18% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans approve
The interest-rate cut
Last week, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by half a percentage point; this week's poll shows little difference in opinion of the direction of the economy, as 49% say it’s getting worse compared to 47% in the prior week's poll
Nearly four times as many Americans say they are hearing more negative news about the economy than are hearing positive news (42% to 11%), with no change in the share mostly hearing negative news from the prior week
- One change in economic indicators picked up by the poll from the prior week: The share of Americans saying interest rates will be lower in six months rose 8 points, from 28% to 36%, including increases among both Harris supporters (up 5 points) and Trump supporters (up 8 points)
- There was much less change in expectations for inflation in six months
Americans wouldn't be missing Diddy
- Americans have sharply negative views of the recently indicted rapper Sean "Diddy" Combs: Only 7% have a very or somewhat favorable view of Combs, and 65% have an unfavorable view
- Views are similar about R. Kelly, the R&B singer convicted of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges: 8% view Kelly favorably and 67% unfavorably
- Even more unpopular is former movie executive Harvey Weinstein, who is in the news after retrials were ordered for some of his sexual-abuse convictions: 6% of Americans view Weinstein favorably and 76% unfavorably
- Rapper Kanye "Ye" West — a former presidential candidate who has no felony convictions or outstanding charges, but who has faced criticism for controversial statements and his behavior at awards shows — is viewed favorably by 18% of Americans and unfavorably by 71%
- Compared to Diddy and Ye, fellow rapper Snoop Dogg is on cloud nine: Snoop has no legal troubles and star turns on a VH1 show with Martha Stewart, at the Super Bowl LVI halftime show, and as an NBC correspondent at the 2024 Paris Olympics, and 64% of Americans view him favorably and only 26% unfavorably
- Americans are divided in their views about TV host and businesswoman Oprah Winfrey, who has endorsed and campaigned for Harris: 46% view Winfrey positively and 47% negatively, including favorable views from 74% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans
- In March 2021, 54% of Americans viewed Winfrey favorably, while 34% saw her unfavorably
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the September 21 - 24, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,622 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%
Image: Getty (Spencer Platt / Staff)
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