A new YouGov survey finds that while opinions of today’s presidential candidates are highly partisan, majorities of Democrats and Republicans hold favorable views of eight of the 10 former presidents included in the poll, including Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, and John F. Kennedy. Majorities on both sides of the aisle say they would vote for four former presidents, and majorities think that eight of these former leaders would win if they were able to run again.
Americans are most likely to have very or somewhat favorable opinions of Lincoln (84%) and Washington (78%). At least seven in 10 have favorable opinions of each of Kennedy (75%), Theodore Roosevelt (73%), and Thomas Jefferson (70%).
The former presidents included in the poll who are viewed favorably by the lowest shares of U.S. adult citizens are Harry S. Truman (56%) and Barack Obama (57%) — numbers that President Joe Biden would envy. Obama is particularly divisive by political party identification: 93% of Democrats have a favorable view of him while just 18% of Republicans do. Ronald Reagan is another polarizing figure: 37% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans view him favorably. Reagan and Obama are the most recent presidents included in the survey; few Americans were alive during the administrations of the other eight presidents included.
Adults under 65 are less likely than older Americans to have a favorable view of nine of the 10 former presidents asked about in the survey. The exception: Obama. 60% of adults under 65 have a favorable view of him, compared to 45% of older Americans.
There is a bigger age gap on Eisenhower’s favorability: 55% of adults under 65 have a positive view of him, compared to 90% of older Americans. 33% of adults under 65 don't know Eisenhower, compared to 7% of older Americans.
If these 10 former presidents were able to run again this year, would Americans vote for them? The largest shares of Americans say they would be very or somewhat likely to vote for Lincoln (76%), Kennedy (70%), Washington (67%), and Teddy Roosevelt (62%). The president Americans are least likely to say they would vote for is Truman — but even for Truman, twice as many Americans say they would be likely to vote for him than to say they would not be likely to do so. 47% say it’s likely they would vote for Truman and 22% say it’s not very likely or not likely at all they would vote for him. 30% are not sure
52% say if Obama ran, they would be likely to vote for him; 42% say they would not be likely to vote for him. 91% of Democrats would be likely to vote for him while fewer Independents (53%) and far fewer Republicans (10%) say the same.
If Reagan were to run, 49% of Americans would be likely to vote for him and 37% would not. 22% of Democrats, 46% of Independents, and 82% of Republicans say they would be likely to vote for Reagan if he ran this year.
Obama does better with younger adults. Two-thirds of adults under 30 (66%) say they would likely vote for Obama if he could run again, while 48% of older Americans say the same.
Reagan, though, does better with older adults. By a small margin, adults under 30 are less likely to say they would likely vote for Reagan if he could run again (37%) than to say they would not likely vote for him (42%). Among older Americans, 35% say they would likely not vote for him and 53% say they likely would.
And who might stand a chance at cinching the presidency today if they were able to run again? 69% think it’s very or somewhat likely Lincoln would win, 68% think it’s likely Kennedy would win, 62% think it’s likely Obama would win, and 62% say the same of Washington. 57% think it’s likely Reagan would win if he ran today; the same number (57%) think Franklin D. Roosevelt would win an election today. Fewer than half of Americans say it’s likely each of Eisenhower (48%) and Truman (44%) would win if they ran today.
Republicans (77%) are especially likely to think Reagan would win if he ran in 2024; 57% of Independents and 38% of Democrats agree.
If Obama were to run again in 2024, 88% of Democrats think he would win. Fewer Independents (63%) and Republicans (34%) agree.
When a version of this question was asked in July 2023, a higher percentage (75%) thought Kennedy would be somewhat or very likely to win if he ran today than say so now (68%).
— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Related:
- What do Americans want in a president?
- Americans’ opinions of six presidents: JFK, FDR, Teddy Roosevelt, Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln
- Should former presidents publicly disagree with the current POTUS? Americans tend to say yes
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This YouGov poll was conducted online on August 9 - 12, 2024 among 1,102 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
Image: Adobe Stock (tanarch)
