This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the latest on the election, the VP debate, hurricanes, the economy, health care, war in the Middle East, and Pete Rose.
The election
- Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a small lead among registered voters over former President Donald Trump
- This week's poll shows Harris leading Trump among registered voters by 3 percentage points, as did last week's and the previous week's
- Harris also leads by 3 points among registered voters when they give their preference among only Harris and Trump
- Harris leads by 4 points among likely voters — registered voters who either say they will definitely vote or who say they will probably vote and who voted in either 2020 or 2022
- Trump leads by 4 points among men while Harris leads by 9 points among women
- Harris leads by 18 points among registered voters under 45 while Trump leads by 7 points among older adults
- Nearly all registered voters choosing Harris (97%) and Trump (98%) say they will not change their minds before the election
- 64% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans are very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting for president this year, though Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they are extremely enthusiastic (45% vs. 38%)
- More registered voters say Harris is honest and trustworthy than say the same about Trump (45% vs. 37%)
- 45% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives race in their district while 45% say they will vote for the Republican
The vice presidential debate
- 47% of Americans say they watched all or part of the vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance; ratings suggest the numbers were lower
- 76% say they know something about the VP debate, either because they watched it, they watched clips of it, or they read or watched news coverage analyzing it
- By 43% to 28%, those who know something about the debate say Vance won
- Opinions of the smaller group who say they watched the debate live are similar: 48% say Vance won while 30% say Walz won
- 88% of Trump's supporters say Vance won; only 63% of Harris’ say Walz won
- Similar shares of Americans say Walz and Vance were truthful during the debate
- And similar shares say Walz and Vance were explaining their positions more than attacking their opponents
- Opinion of Vance improved after the debate compared to the results of last week's poll, while opinion of Walz changed little
- Vance parried a question from Walz at the debate about whether Trump lost the 2020 election; 51% of Trump’s supporters say that the statement that he lost in 2020 is definitely or probably false while 37% say it is true
Hurricane Helene
- Governors of states affected by Hurricane Helene are approved of by more Americans for their handling of the response than are the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and President Joe Biden
- The governors' handling of Helene response is approved of by majorities of Democrats and Republicans, while there is a wide partisan divide on opinion on FEMA's and Biden's handling of hurricane response: Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to approve
- 32% of Americans say they know someone who was affected by Helene, including 3% who say they were affected
- In affected states, 45% know someone affected including 10% who were affected themselves
- 61% of Americans say their view about presidential candidates' visits to disaster sites is closer to the opinion that candidates should visit because it shows solidarity with the victims, while 24% lean more toward saying candidates shouldn't visit because it takes away resources from the response
The economy
- Democrats and Republicans have very different views of which issues matter most: among Democrats, the greatest shares name inflation/prices, health care, abortion, jobs and the economy, and climate change and the environment, in that order, while among Republicans, inflation, immigration, and jobs the top issues are
- Democrats and Republicans see the economy differently: 43% of Democrats and 50% of Harris voters say the economy is getting better, while only 5% of Republicans and 3% of Trump supporters say the same
- Democrats and Republicans also hear different kinds of economic news: 55% of Republicans say most of the news they hear about the economy is negative, compared to 22% of Democrats
- Despite a positive September jobs report, only 19% of Republicans say the number of jobs is increasing, compared to 51% of Democrats
- 36% of Republicans and 21% of Democrats expect inflation to be higher in six months
Health care
- Since the start of Joe Biden's presidency in 2021, public opinion of the Affordable Care Act has grown more positive — especially among Independents and Republicans
- Only 24% of Republicans approve now, but that is up from 16% in a poll soon after Biden’s inauguration
- 71% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans say that health insurance companies should be prohibited from charging different prices to people based on their health
- 54% of men and 68% of women support barring health insurance companies from setting prices based on people's health
War in the Middle East
- 73% of Americans either say the Israel-Hamas war has already led to a wider war in the Middle East (14%) or say it is very likely (26%) or fairly likely (34%) to do so
- Politics divides Americans in the conflict: Republicans overwhelmingly say their sympathies lie more with the Israelis than with the Palestinians, while Democrats are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinians or sympathize equally with both sides than to sympathize with the Israelis
- 53% of Americans say Iran is an enemy of the U.S.
- Only 26% strongly or somewhat approve of how President Biden is handling Iran; 53% disapprove
Pete Rose
- In October 2013 — long after Pete Rose's 1986 retirement from baseball after being accused of betting on baseball games, but before admitting that he had made bets, 37% of Americans held very or somewhat favorable opinions of him, while 23% held unfavorable views of him
- After Rose’s death last week, Americans' views of Rose had barely changed from 2013: 37% view him favorably, while 22% view him unfavorably
- Americans 65 and older are the most likely to have an opinion of Rose: 51% of them view him favorably while 24% view him unfavorably
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the October 6 - 7, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,604 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%
Image: Getty (Kent Nishimura / Stringer)
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