The second release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just three weeks before the election. The October 16 update shows Harris with 250 electoral votes, Trump with 219, and 69 electoral votes as tossups.
This is a change from the September 10 release, which showed Harris with 256 votes, Trump with 235, and 47 electoral votes as tossups.
270 votes are needed to be elected and, according to our model, the outcome will be determined by races that we currently rate as tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. All of these contests are within the margin of error and could go either way.
The model is based on interviews through October 15 from YouGov’s U.S. panel conducted as part of the SAY24 project, a collaboration between Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
