This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the latest on the election, the gender gap, candidate traits, campaign outreach, election trust, Halloween, and the World Series. This is the final Economist/YouGov poll scheduled for release before the Nov. 5 election.
The election
The latest numbers
- One week before Election Day, this final pre-election Economist/YouGov Poll continues to show a close race nationally: 47% of registered voters say they will vote — or have already voted — for Vice President Kamala Harris, while 46% support former President Donald Trump
- Because of rounding, the real gap between the candidates among registered voters is closer to 2 points than 1 point, bringing it even more in line with recent weeks and showing the stability in the race
- Likely voters — defined as registered voters who either say they will definitely vote or have voted already, as well as those who say they will probably vote and voted in either 2020 or 2022 — also narrowly favor Harris, by 49% to 47%
- For a large share of voters, their election is over: 40% say they have voted already either by mail or absentee ballot or in person at a polling place — slightly higher than the 37% of registered voters who say they will cast their ballot at the polls on Election Day
- People who have used or plan to use in-person voting favor Trump 53% to 42% for Harris; those using mail or absentee ballots favor Harris by 59% to 32%
Gender gaps and other divisions
- Among registered voters, men continue to be slightly more likely to support Trump, by 49% to 44%, while women favor Harris by 50% to 43%
- Registered voters who are currently married favor Trump by 53% to 43%, while those who have never married favor Harris by 57% to 33%
- Among registered voters without a college degree, Trump leads by 49% to 44%, while college graduates prefer Harris by 52% to 42%
- Trump leads among white registered voters by 52% to 42%, while registered voters who are not white support Harris by 61% to 30%
- Registered voters who attend religious services at least a few times per year favor Trump by 56% to 38%, while those who attend seldomly or never support Harris by 57% to 35%
Candidate traits
- For many candidate characteristics asked about in the poll, Harris and Trump receive similar evaluations from registered voters overall, indicating how the race has become so close — and so polarized
- For most characteristics, few supporters of one candidate say anything positive about the opponent
- About two-thirds of Harris supporters call Trump each of extremist (67%), authoritarian (64%), or fascist (64%)
- Half (51%) of Trump supporters call Harris a socialist
- 51% of registered voters say Harris is a very or somewhat strong leader; 56% say Trump is
- 50% say Harris cares some or a lot about their needs and problems; 49% believe Trump does
- 49% say Harris has the temperament to be president; 46% say Trump does
- More registered voters see Harris as very or somewhat moral (55%) than say the same about Trump (43%)
- But more registered voters call Trump very or somewhat religious (37%) than think Harris is (32%)
- One in four registered voters (27%) are unable to place Harris on the religious scale; only 11% can't characterize Trump
- In May 2020, 56% of registered voters said they thought Trump, then the president, did not respect women and 33% said he did; now 49% say he does not and 42% say he does
- There has been little change among women: 54% of women said in 2020 that Trump did not respect women and 53% of women say that today
Reaching out
- Both campaigns have used texts and email to make their case to supporters; each campaign has reached at least 20% of Americans by text, and the same goes for email
- About as many Americans have been contacted by Trump’s campaign by mail as by social media, while Harris’ campaign has reached slightly more with social media than mail (21% vs. 17%)
- Only 29% of Harris supporters and 32% of Trump supporters say they weren't contacted by their preferred candidate's campaign using any of the methods included in the poll
- People who aren't registered voters are much more likely to say they haven't been contacted by each campaign using any of the methods included in the poll: 70% say this of the Harris campaign compared to 44% of registered voters, and 81% say this of the Trump campaign compared to 44% of registered voters
Vote counting and election concerns
- Few Americans (19%) expect they will know the outcome of the presidential election on the night of the election; nearly half (46%) expect it will take at least a few days, including 12% who think it will take at least a few weeks
- Less than half (45%) of Trump supporters have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that their own vote will be counted accurately, compared to 85% of Harris supporters
- Even fewer Trump supporters (23%) have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that the election itself will be held fairly, compared to 78% of Harris supporters
- By 54% to 28%, Americans would prefer that the candidate who gets the most votes nationally win the presidential election — rather than base the result on the Electoral College
- Democrats are far more likely to prefer the winner be based on the popular vote (75%) than Republicans are (37%)
Halloween plans
- About one-third (31%) of adults don’t expect to do anything to celebrate Halloween on Thursday, including 19% of adults under 45 and 40% of older Americans
- Americans' most popular plans to celebrate Halloween are eating Halloween candy (34% plan to do that) and watching scary movies (28%); about one-quarter (23%) plan to decorate their home
The World Series
- The Los Angeles Dodgers could win the World Series by four games to one with a victory Wednesday night; Americans — including fans and non-fans — are closely divided on whether they want the Dodgers or the Yankees to win (26% vs. 23%)
- Americans who say Major League Baseball is one of their top interests are almost evenly divided: 45% want the Yankees to win and 44% prefer a Dodgers win
- People living in the Northeast favor the Yankees by 45% to 17%, while Westerners prefer the Dodgers by 37% to 11%
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the October 26 - 29, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,587 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%
Image: Getty (Michael M. Santiago / Staff)
What do you think about the election, American politics in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
