If Canadians could vote in U.S. elections, how would they vote? A recent YouGov survey finds that most Liberals in Canada would vote in line with U.S. Democrats while Conservatives in Canada have more mixed feelings about how they would vote.
Less than half (41%) of Canadians say that they would vote mostly for Democrats, and only 13% say that they would mostly vote for Republicans. Majorities of New Democrats (67%) and Liberals (66%) say that they would primarily vote for Democrats.
Although Conservatives are most likely to say that they would vote mostly for Republicans — 29% say so — almost as many Conservatives say they would vote mostly for Democrats (22%) or neither of the two parties (26%).
Support for Democrats is higher in the context of the 2024 U.S. election. Most (57%) Canadians say they would have voted for Kamala Harris; only 18% say that they would have voted for Donald Trump.
Liberals and New Democrats align closely in how they would have voted in the 2024 U.S. election: 80% of each group say they would have voted for Harris. Conservatives are divided:, 35% say that they would have voted for Harris and 38% say Trump.
Canadians can't vote in U.S. elections now and the prospect of that changing looks distant: 84% of Canadians strongly (78%) or somewhat (6%) oppose their country becoming part of the U.S. Opposition among Canadians is up 7 points from January.
Canadians who do support Canada joining the U.S. are more likely to say that they would vote mostly for Republicans (47%), compared to 18% who say they would vote mostly for Democrats. Among those who oppose Canada joining the U.S., 47% say that they would vote mostly for Democrats and 9% say that they would vote mostly for Republicans.
— Kristin Crawford and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This article includes results from an online survey conducted March 27 - April 2, 2025 among 993 Canadian adults. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult Canadians. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, education, region, and 2021 federal election vote. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2021 Canadian Census. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (SDI Productions)
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